Streamflow Forecasting and Water Resources Situation Analysis by Use of Fuzzy Set Theory

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簡歷

基本資料

Project title

Code/計畫編號

NSC89-2211-E019-008

Translated Name/計畫中文名

模糊理論在河川流量預測及水資源情勢分析之研究

Project Coordinator/計畫主持人

Wen-Cheng Huang

Funding Organization/主管機關

National Science and Technology Council

Department/Unit

Department of Harbor and River Engineering

Website

https://www.grb.gov.tw/search/planDetail?id=527254

Year

2000

Start date/計畫起

01-08-1999

Expected Completion/計畫迄

01-07-2000

Bugetid/研究經費

635千元

ResearchField/研究領域

土木水利工程

本計畫為二年期研究計畫，本年度已完成河川流量模糊預測模式之建立，乃利用模糊中心指標(Fuzzy c-means)疊代聚類分析方法(ISODATA聚類分析法)，分別依不同超越機率豐枯水文，將歷史流量分門別類予以歸類。並以模糊識別方法，建立一流量預測模式，並以翡翠水庫進行預測分析，以預測未來9 旬流量之預測分析顯示，其平均絕對誤差(MAD)，在枯水期間10-3月預測，約為8-15cms，而豐水期間4-9月預測，約為15-30cms，而體積誤差(VE)均在-0.3至0.3 間，以中長期距流量預測而言，屬可適用之預測模式。 The main purposes of this research are twofold. The first study year will focus on the long-term streamflow forecasting to reservoirs based on the fuzzy set theory. The forecasted flows should thus resemble historical sequences. The fuzzy c-means clustering technique will be applied here to bringing about partitions of flow classification. By selecting a cluster with minimum distance between the observed streamflows and the corresponding cluster center, the remaining representative values of the selected cluster can be assumed to be the estimates of future flows.

Keyword(s)

模糊理論
流量預測
水資源情勢分析
Fuzzy set theory
Streamflow forecasting
Water resources situation analysis

DSpace CRIS

Streamflow Forecasting and Water Resources Situation Analysis by Use of Fuzzy Set Theory

基本資料

Description