Risk and Uncertainty of Storm Surge at Southwestern Coast with Consideration of Climate Changes: Natural Variations of Typhoon Factors and Their Influences(III)

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Project title

Code/計畫編號

MOST107-2221-E019-010-MY3

Translated Name/計畫中文名

氣候變遷下西南沿海暴潮風險與不確定性：颱風因子自然變異及其造成之影響(III)

Project Coordinator/計畫主持人

Chih-Chieh Young

Funding Organization/主管機關

National Science and Technology Council

Department/Unit

Department of Marine Environmental Informatics

Website

https://www.grb.gov.tw/search/planDetail?id=13323659

Year

2020

Start date/計畫起

01-08-2020

Expected Completion/計畫迄

31-07-2021

Bugetid/研究經費

730千元

ResearchField/研究領域

土木水利工程

氣候變遷下颱風暴潮之風險與不確定性在基礎海洋科學及海岸災害管理上一直是相當重要的研究議題。在全球暖化的影響下，海溫升高使得颱風生成的數量與強度每每超越過去的記錄。因狂風與低壓而起的暴潮將造成更甚以往的毀滅性災害。本計畫研究目的為探討氣候變遷下西南沿海暴潮之風險與不確定性，主要將聚焦於分析颱風因子之自然變異及其造成之影響。計畫致力於更深入的認識與掌握台灣西南海域暴潮偏差可能之變動範圍，期能強化濱海地區的減災、防災準備、預警及應變工作，減少民眾生命財產的損失。計畫中將妥善分析海氣象觀測資料，特別是氣象因子之統計特性，如颱風中心氣壓、近中心最大風速、暴風半徑、及颱風行進方向與角度等；結合物理基礎、非靜水壓動力模擬及人工智慧學習理論，本土研發出一套準確颱風路徑及強度、颱風模型及暴潮之預測模式。整體而言，本研究企圖國內颱風暴潮災害管理領域推向下一個里程碑。本計畫成果預期在學術研究及海岸防災上帶來助益。未來能進一步聯結至災害規模分析、災損評估與各種規劃方案的成本效益分析，更為充分的資訊可供海岸災害管理上的參考。 Risk and uncertainty of storm surges under climate change is an important research topic in oceanic science and coastal disaster management/prevention. Due to global warming and associated increase in sea surface temperature, the quantity and intensity of typhoons surpass past records. As a consequence, storm surges caused by extremely high wind and low pressure will result in more devastating tragedies. The purpose of this project is to explore the risk and uncertainty of storm surge along southwest coast of Taiwan under climate change. Our main focus is the natural variation of typhoon factors and its impact. We aim to gain a deeper understanding of possible ranges of storm surges in southwest coastal waters, which help the coastal communities to reduce the losses of life and property during typhoons and strengthen mitigation, preparedness (early warning), response and recovery works to the disasters. In the project, marine meteorological observation data will be carefully analyzed, especially for the statistical characteristics of typhoon parameters (including the maximum wind speed, center pressure, radius of the storm, translation speed and direction). In addition, an accurate and efficient modelling framework for typhoon track, strength, wind field and storm surge will be developed using parametric cyclone physics, non-hydrostatic hydro-dynamic model, and artificial intelligence learning approaches. The fruitful results are expected, providing significant positive impacts in both academic and practice. Overall, this study attempts to push the field of coastal disaster (i.e., storm surge) management to a new milestone. In the future, a series of further application research (such as the linkage to the analysis of disaster scale, disaster assessment and cost-benefit analysis of various planning programs) can be systematically carried out. More sufficient reference information would become available for coastal disaster management.

Keyword(s)

氣候變遷
颱風暴潮
風險與不確定性分析
颱風因子
氣旋物理模型
非靜水壓動力模式
人工智慧方法
Climate Change
Storm Surge
Risk and Uncertainty Analysis
Typhoon Parameters
Parametric Cyclone Physics
Non-hydrostatic Model
Artificial Intelligence

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Risk and Uncertainty of Storm Surge at Southwestern Coast with Consideration of Climate Changes: Natural Variations of Typhoon Factors and Their Influences(III)

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