Modeling and Analysis of Management Strategy Evaluation for Swordfish in the Indian Ocean

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簡歷

基本資料

Project title

Code/計畫編號

NSC102-2313-B019-009

Translated Name/計畫中文名

印度洋劍旗魚之管理策略評估模式建構與分析

Project Coordinator/計畫主持人

Sheng-Ping Wang

Funding Organization/主管機關

National Science and Technology Council

Department/Unit

Department of Environmental Biology and Fisheries Science

Website

https://www.grb.gov.tw/search/planDetail?id=3109393

Year

2013

Start date/計畫起

01-08-2013

Expected Completion/計畫迄

01-07-2014

Bugetid/研究經費

1120千元

ResearchField/研究領域

漁業

"管理策略評估分析之主要目的為利用模擬方法評估不同漁業管理策略與資源動態間相互反應的預期表現，進一步應用於管理策略的採用與管理措施的制定，近年來許多漁業資源領域的相關科學家以及區域性漁業管理組織已將紛紛將資源評估分析方法的焦點由過去之資源評估程序轉移至管理策略評估的發展與分析。由於近年來印度洋劍旗魚漁獲量的大幅減少，印度洋鮪類委員會自 2006 年開始著手進行印度洋劍旗魚資源評估，根據現階段之資源評估結果指出整個印度洋劍旗魚在目前的漁獲水準下應暫時無過漁的危險，然而近年來西南印度洋海域的劍旗魚資源卻已呈現嚴重的區域性資源耗減。本研究之目的在於發展建構印度洋劍旗魚管理策略評估模式，並配合印度洋劍旗魚歷年之漁獲統計資料及生活史參數進行各項資源動態參數之估計，進一步利用近似法或是貝氏後驗機率分布進行各項族群參數之不確定性估計。根據管理策略評估模式之建構以及各項族群參數之機率分布，本研究將再針對印度洋劍旗魚資源設定多種漁獲策略並利用模擬方法進行資源動態之投射預測分析，進一步評估最適之漁業管理策略。而本研究發展之分析程序未來也可以廣泛的應用於其他漁業資源之評估與管理。 " "The main objective of analysis on management strategy evaluation is to identify the trade-offs between population dynamics corresponding to alternative harvest strategies and further to apply to management strategy adoption and management measure performance. Recently, lots of fishery scientists and regional fishery management organizations continually change their focus related to stock evaluation from traditional assessment procedure into the development and analysis of management strategy evaluation. Due to the substantial decrease in catch of swordfish in the Indian Ocean, Indian Ocean Tuna Commission has proceeded to carry out the stock assessment for swordfish in the Indian Ocean since 2006. The results of current stock assessment indicated that the stock of swordfish in the entire Indian Ocean would not be subjected to the risk of overfish under current harvest level. However, the stock of swordfish in the southwest Indian Ocean has been under the condition of critically local depletion. The objective of this study is to develop the management strategy evaluation model and to estimate population parameters by fitting the model to the fishery statistics data and life span parameters. The uncertainties of population parameters will be estimated using asymptotic method or Bayesian posterior distribution. Based on the modeling of management strategy evaluation and probability distributions of population parameters, this study will carry out the projection for population dynamics with various harvest strategies using simulation method and further evaluate the optimal fishery management strategy. The evaluation procedure developed in this study can be broadly applied to assessment and management for other fishery resources. "

Keyword(s)

管理策略評估
模式建構
劍旗魚
印度洋
management strategy evaluation
modeling
swordfish
Indian Ocean

DSpace CRIS

Modeling and Analysis of Management Strategy Evaluation for Swordfish in the Indian Ocean

基本資料

Description