Ocean Environmental Analysis and Value-Added Climate Index

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基本資料

Project title

Code/計畫編號

MOST103-2621-M019-001

Translated Name/計畫中文名

氣候變遷調適科技整合研究計畫(II)-海洋環境分析與資料加值(II)

Project Coordinator/計畫主持人

Ming-An Lee

Funding Organization/主管機關

National Science and Technology Council

Department/Unit

Department of Environmental Biology and Fisheries Science

Website

https://www.grb.gov.tw/search/planDetail?id=8209681

Year

2014

Start date/計畫起

01-01-2014

Expected Completion/計畫迄

31-12-2014

Bugetid/研究經費

8420千元

ResearchField/研究領域

大氣科學
海洋科學

氣候變遷及衍生的極端天氣已在全球各地造成不同程度(暴露度)的影響氣候變遷效應及衍生的極端天氣已在全球各地造成不同程度的影響，影響人類的生活環境以及陸域與海洋生態系統也有日益劇烈的趨勢。本研究整合海洋、大氣、陸地、地質、海岸及生態所構成之環境系統資訊，藉由氣候變遷下不同環境領域耦合分析工作以及資料加值，並以台南市為示範區，就空間型-都會熱島、農業區、山區與海岸七股濕地等受到區域氣候、生態環境等氣候變遷下環境衝擊進行潛勢分析，透過地理資訊系統平台建構空間網格為基準之暴露度指標與量化資訊，以協助調適科技規劃，並支援脆弱度分析及調適治理之政策研擬所需之各類潛勢指標及驗證支援決策系統之應用。結果如下: (1)1981-2013年台灣海峽海域表水溫呈現增溫趨勢(0.11℃/年)，雖然近10年海域表水溫呈現些許降溫情形，但冬季增溫特別顯著，此一現象已間接造成冬季期間由黑潮及大陸沿岸流勢力對峙所形成的鋒面(i.e.20℃等溫線)向西北推移的現象，進而造成部分生物族群(如烏魚)洄游之南界有北移現象。 (2)由歷史衛遙測資料顯示(1980-2010)，七股潟湖水域面積於水域面積減少60%。福衛2號影像與GIS整合分析顯示，近5年濱外沙洲正以每年12公尺的速率向內侵蝕，2012年潟湖南端的頂頭額沙洲相對於2009年之面積已減少了40%。 (3)藉由TCCIP氣候資料分析已掌握台灣的氣候(氣溫與降雨)變動型態，並顯示大尺度的太平洋海溫變異(如ENSO或PDO)對台灣降雨的影響。經由統計分析發現聖嬰年期間之台灣西部的春雨與東部秋雨之降雨量分別較氣候平均值降雨量增加20-30%與30-40%。 (4)透過自1986到2011年間每5年之台南市土地覆蓋變遷與都市發展潛勢資料，已掌握本市都市熱島效應與都市發展之互動機制及其在區域降水之影響。以嘉南平原地區農地土地覆蓋資料觀之，驗證後其平均Kappa值為0.69。 (5)產製網格化的SPI3序列，建立全台各乾旱事件類型(中度、嚴重、極端乾旱事件)，計算其乾旱發生次數、乾旱平均延時、乾旱平均嚴重度等之乾旱特性。 (6)藉由收集長期衛星微波觀測資料和衛星光學觀測資料所提供的大氣環境參數等資訊，以及環境參數和降雨的相關性，建立環境風場影響下的降雨反演式，配合地面觀測之資料及將相關大氣環境參數代入模式，已建立西南氣流期間曾文溪流域的降雨估算模式。 (7)發展曾文溪流域之山崩機率，面積與體積預測以及岩屑崩滑潛勢，並進一步推估強降雨下土砂量，以分析極端降雨狀況下的山崩土石流災害暨流域地形演變 (8)經由颱風所引起波高與暴潮模擬分析，推測未來颱風引起暴潮及波高變化趨勢。建立台南海岸現階段及未來潟湖沙洲消失後的安全性評估，完成沿岸現階段及近未來5-250迴歸期颱風溢流量安全低中高潛勢等級 (9)已建立生態系統與生態保護區之基本圖層，搭配環境因子資料庫進行生物預測分布模式計算，得到各物種於示範區台南的兩棲、兩棲保育類、兩棲特有種、鳥類，保育鳥類與特有種鳥類等物種豐富度的預測圖。 This project was tried to produce useful environmental indices, the environmental potential and other value-added products and services in environmental system based on traditional/ untraditional data analysis and observation. Tainan city was chosen to demonstrate the key issues associated with the environmental potential index. It supposes not only to understand the future regional atmospheric environment/climate change tendency, but also to provide references and suggestions for risk reduction in Impact Evaluation Group (IEG) and Disaster Management Group (DMG). The main results are listed as below, (1)The warming SST in the Taiwan Strait is significant; with an increasing trend of 0.11οC/yr. the warming rate during wintertime is more prominent than that in summer. This phenomena result in northwardly movement of the grey mullet resource in wintertime. (2)The water coverage of Chiku lagoon was 1600 ha in 1980s but decreased to 960 ha after 2010 which a drop of 60%. Nonetheless, two changes of sediment dynamics have been observed that, firstly, the construction Tsenweng Reservoir limited the sediments from the river headstream to the estuary. (3)The rainfall variation associated with El Nino and La Nino was found up to 20-30% of the regional climatological values in the western Taiwan during springtime and 30-40% in the eastern Taiwan during autumn, respectively. (4)In the agriculture monitoring, the land cover changes for Tainan in between 1986 and 2011 was observed with Kappa of 0.69. The historical city development potential index in Tainan was also defined. The impact of urban heat island on regional precipitation was also discussed. (5)The trend of number of drought event, mean drought duration and mean drought severity in Taiwan based on SPI3 series was analyzed. (6)Buildup precursory index for extreme rainfall from integrated observational datasets to discover regional atmospheric environment. (7)The rain-induced landslide hazard map, debris-flow hazard map and dip-slope landslide susceptibility map were produced. And the trend of future wave height and storm surge was evaluated. (8)We collect species data base from those ecosystems which are urban ecosystem, marine ecosystem and wetland ecosystem. The data focused on the changes in species distribution and abundance of some ecological indicators that are important to specific ecosystems. Trends were analyzed and documented in a database using a GIS approach.

Keyword(s)

海洋環境
遙感探測
微氣候
資料加值
潛勢指標
暴露度
ocean environment
remote sensing
microclimate
value-added data service platform
climatic index potential
exposure

DSpace CRIS

Ocean Environmental Analysis and Value-Added Climate Index

基本資料

Description