The risk assessment of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in raw oysters in Taiwan under the seasonal variations, time horizons, and climate scenarios

Abstract

While seafood is consumed worldwide, eating raw seafood is more popular in Asian countries. Consuming seafood promotes many health benefits, but is not risk free because it can be contaminated with foodborne pathogens, which can result in disease outbreaks. In this study, we performed the risk assessment of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in raw oysters in Taiwan under the seasonal variations, time horizons, and climate scenarios. Sixty-four scenarios with 100,000 iterations were performed with Monte Carlo simulation. The results showed the estimated risk of eating oysters under the baseline to be 2.2 x 10(-5), 4.5 x 10(-5), 9.4 x 10(-5), and 6.2 x 10(-5) per serving in winter, spring, summer, and fall, respectively. The risk in that baseline in this study was found to be intensified by 23%, 35%, 37%, and 65% by RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5, respectively, and it was intensified to 0.18, 0.38, and 0.64 times in 2016-2035, 2046-2065, and 2081-2100, respectively. Mitigation strategies simulated in this study show that the risk in that baseline could be reduced by 64-87%, 52-67%, and 47-63% with immediate refrigeration, depuration, and freezing treatment, respectively, and could be reduced by up to 100% by mild thermal treatment, thermal shock and irradiation. Reducing and or controlling the risk of raw oysters will prevent foodborne outbreaks from occurring. Therefore, the findings obtained from this study may help the food safety authority and food managers in food industry in their decision-making process.