Exploration of safe navigation zones for large cruise ships entering Keelung port by fast time simulations

Abstract

Since 2012, Keelung Port has shifted from cargo operations to a tourism-focused harbor. By 2018, it hosted 282 cruise ships and over 940,000 passengers. However, seasonal weather-typhoons in summer and monsoons in winter-poses navigation risks. This study focuses on the SuperStar Aquarius, the most frequent cruise ship at the port in 2018, analyzing its routes using AIS data. Ninety Fast Time Simulations were conducted under six scenarios, mainly under strong northeast monsoon conditions with wind speeds of 8, 10, and 13 m/s and varying tidal flows. Results showed significant route deviations in Zone 2 due to environmental forces. The greatest navigational risk was observed during half-speed entries under winter monsoon conditions, where the combination of reduced maneuverability and strong lateral forces led to excessive drift toward the western breakwaterraising the potential for collisions. The findings provide valuable insights for improving cruise ship navigation safety and guiding port planning efforts.