Enhancement and Application of Wave Hindcasting Model (III)

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Project title

Code/計畫編號

NSC96-2623-7006-011-D

Translated Name/計畫中文名

數值海浪預報之精進及應用(III)

Project Coordinator/計畫主持人

Tai-Wen Hsu

Co-Investigator(s)/共同執行人

許泰文

Website

https://www.grb.gov.tw/search/planDetail?id=1399516

Year

2007

Start date/計畫起

01-01-2007

Expected Completion/計畫迄

01-12-2007

Bugetid/研究經費

923千元

受到全球科技化的影響，海軍設備也隨之快速發展，其軍事戰備導向高科技、電子化的應用。在實施各類型海上作戰任務時，海戰區域的範圍甚大，海戰環境的影響需要精確的評估與預測，故大氣環境與風浪的預報應達到作業化的精確預估，以減低軍事行動可能發生的不確定性。本計畫發展海洋風浪預報之數值模式，用以預測海洋環境之波浪，提供海軍執行海上各項作戰任務時海況資料。本計畫共分三年度進行，目的為建立台灣環島沿岸之風浪預報模式，以整合海軍氣象中心之大氣預報模式，完成海氣象預報模式的建立。第一年度為建立適用於台灣環島之遠域風浪預測模式，評估風浪模式之適用範圍與準確度。第二年度則是建立模式預報流程，依據風浪模式之適用性，進行參數最佳化的調整，並利用資料同化系統以增強模式預報能力。第三年度目標為建立沿岸之風浪預測，並整合三年計畫成果，完成台灣環島海域之風浪預報模式。計畫重點為預報模式作業化之建立及資料同化作業化程式之測試和運算，修正資料同化系統相關參數，增加風浪預報能力。以系集模擬(ensemble simulation)觀念，透過統計方法，決定各種不同模擬的權重值，使其更接近實測值，並以五百公尺解析度縮小數值格網，建立沿岸之風浪預測，以符合海軍氣象中心之作戰需要，完成最佳化模擬流程與預報準備時間，以達快速預報之要求，完成適海軍需求之台灣環島海域之風浪預報模式。英文摘要Owing to the recent high technology developments, the naval battle region is spreading quickly and widely to reach the goal of electricity, accuracy and high speed. Therefore, in order to prevent the warfare mistakes, it is desirable to estimate accurate waves and currents in the ocean. In the present study, a numerical wave model is developed for the wind wave simulation in the far-sea and nearshore regions. The prdicability of the model is examined through observations. The results show that the prediction of WAM/SWAN is better than other wave models. The nested grid is implemented to calculate wind waves by coarser grids in deep water region using WAM, and finer grids in shallow water region using SWAN. WAM uses an explicit first-order accurate upwind scheme in the geographical space. Therefore, the shorter time-step must be chosen to maintain stability. Because of the SWAN code using a fully implicit upwind scheme in geographic space the longer time-step could be adopted. In the second year, using both simulated results and the observational data, it is intended to create a data assimilation procedure that will be used to increase the accuracy of the forecast of the wind wave model. In the last year, an efficient operational procedure for the forecast of the wind wave model will be demonstrated and established. The finer grids in the numerical simulation will particularly be utilized to enhance the ability of the forecast system. The primary objective of this project will be demonstrated by integrating all the different aspects during the last year of the investigation.

Keyword(s)

風浪模式
資料同化
風浪預報
系集
word wave model
data assimilation
forecast wind wave
Ensemble

DSpace CRIS

Enhancement and Application of Wave Hindcasting Model (III)

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