Application of Real-Time Runoff Model in Mountain Areas Integrated into Disaster Contingency Platform ( III )

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基本資料

Project title

Code/計畫編號

MOST104-2625-M019-001

Translated Name/計畫中文名

即時測預報與多層級應變作為之分析與連結-以易受坡地與洪氾災害之高屏地區為例-子計畫:即時山區逕流模式於災防應變資訊平台之整合應用(III)

Project Coordinator/計畫主持人

Kwan-Tun Lee

Funding Organization/主管機關

National Science and Technology Council

Department/Unit

Department of Harbor and River Engineering

Website

https://www.grb.gov.tw/search/planDetail?id=11486318

Year

2015

Start date/計畫起

01-08-2015

Expected Completion/計畫迄

31-08-2016

Bugetid/研究經費

592千元

ResearchField/研究領域

防災工程
土木水利工程

"本研究之目的在於建立即時山區逕流模擬模式，以利於災防應變資訊平台之整合應用。因考量即時逕流預測模式所需之時效性，目前防災應變系統，常採用集塊式逕流模式，以進行集水區之降雨逕流演算。本研究為能充分掌握集水區地文與水文空間變異，對逕流模擬之影響，因此擬採用分佈式逕流演算方式，以進行颱洪時期之即時逕流模擬。研究中將發展高效率數值計算方式，期以符合即時逕流預測的時效性，並能達到防洪預報所需之準確度。因考量動力波模式無法應用於陡坡山區，本研究將採用零慣性波理論建立分佈式逕流演算模式，以描述水流於起伏地貌之匯流與傳遞情形。本研究將以臺灣南部高屏溪流域為研究地區，收集流域内之水文紀錄資料，並配合數值高程模式之分析，發展逕流演算模式。第一年計晝（2013-2014)已建立擬二維逕流演算模式，透過修改計算時距内水深變量的方式，增大可蘭條件限制下之計算時距，藉以提昇數值模式之整體演算效能。目前第二年計晝（2014-2015)正著手建立全二維逕流演算模式，以針對擬二維與全二維演算模式之輸出結果，探討不同流向判定方式對於集水區邊界擷取以及逕流模擬之影響。研究中將同時配合整合計晝之規劃，提供災防應變資訊平台所需之資訊。第三年計晝（2015-2016)擬以研究集水區之地文與水文條件為基礎，詳細分析模式參數空間分布特性，對逕流模擬之影響。同時並將配合整合計晝，針對選定颱洪案例進行模擬分析，以期將研究成果應用於實際防災工作，提供政府相關單位於颱洪時期之重要資訊。 " "The objective of this study is to establish a real-time runoff model in mountain areas integrated into the disaster contingency platform. In considering the timeliness for flood forecasting, lumped models were conventionally adopted to implement the rainfall-runoff simulation in disaster warning system. In this study, a distributed hydrological model will be developed for real-time runoff forecasting in order to consider spatial-varying geomorphologic and hydrological characteristics in the watershed. An efficient numerical scheme will be implemented to meet the requirement of a real-time flood forecasting model which only permits tolerable errors with short calculating time. A non-inertia-wave model will be established to simulate the migration and concentration process of flood flow through the watershed to avoid numerical instability problems while performing a dynamic-wave model in steep mountain areas. In this study, hydrological and geomorphologic data from Kao-Ping River basin in southern Taiwan will be collected. A digital elevation model will be incorporated into the distributed runoff model developing. In the first-year project (2013-2014), a quasi-2D runoff model was built. The research work focused on numerical modification to improve the grid-based computation efficiency by expanding the calculating time increment without complying with the stability restriction. In the current second-year project (2014-2015), a fully-2D runoff model is being developed. Moreover, the differences on two aspects, the extraction of watershed area and the simulated hydrographs, affected by different flow-direction-determination methods between the quasi-2D and fully-2D models will be detailed discussed. In the third-year project (2015-2016), the distributed criteria to allocate the model parameters will be established depending on the available hydrological and geomorphologic properties in a watershed. Flood recorded data will be provided to implement the model simulation and conformed to the planning of the integrated project. The results obtained in this study can be applied to practical assignment of disaster prevention and provide valuable information for authorities on disaster mitigation during typhoons. "

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Application of Real-Time Runoff Model in Mountain Areas Integrated into Disaster Contingency Platform ( III )

基本資料

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