Dynamic Airline Scheduling Considering Variations of Passenger Demands and Competitor Timetables

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Project title

Code/計畫編號

NSC102-2410-H019-014

Translated Name/計畫中文名

考量旅客需求與競爭對手班表變動下航空公司動態班次規劃

Project Coordinator/計畫主持人

Ching-Hui Tang

Funding Organization/主管機關

National Science and Technology Council

Department/Unit

Department of Transportation Science

Website

https://www.grb.gov.tw/search/planDetail?id=3098112

Year

2013

Start date/計畫起

01-08-2013

Expected Completion/計畫迄

31-07-2014

Bugetid/研究經費

850千元

ResearchField/研究領域

管理科學
交通運輸

"航空產業處在動態且競爭的環境之中，航空公司不僅需面對旅客需求會隨時間變化的動態特性，亦需面臨對手班表的競爭，因此，如何在動態競爭的市場中，同時考量旅客需求與競爭對手班表的變動，以規劃本身最佳的班表，實為航空公司營運上的重要課題。有鑑於此，本研究擬針對國內市場寡占競爭的特性，發展一動態班表規劃方法，其作法是航空公司在相關規定的期限前，配合旅客需求與競爭對手班表的變動，進行航班時間的動態調整。期望能在此動態競爭的環境中，幫助業者規劃最佳的機隊排程與班次表，以提升其營運績效與市場競爭力。本研究擬利用數學規劃技巧結合賽局理論，發展一航空公司動態班表規劃架構，此架構包含四個部分: 首先發展適用於航空公司班表規劃的賽局求解技巧。之後，利用旅客選擇行為模式以預測旅客需求的變動情形。其次，考量競爭航空公司可能的班表變動，透過賽局策略選擇對目標航空公司最有利的斑表調整方式。最後，構建一排程規劃模式，並結合前二部份計算之旅客需求與目標航空公司班表調整策略，求解最佳的機隊排程與班次表。為測試本研究動態班表規劃架構之績效與實用性，我們擬以國內一航空公司資料為例進行分析，並根據研究的結果，提出結論與建議。 ""The airline industry is involved in a dynamic and competitive environment. Airlines not only need to meet the dynamic characteristic that passenger demands will vary with time, but also meet the competition of the competitor timetables. Therefore, it is an important issue that airlines simultaneously consider the variations of passenger demands and competitor timetables to plan the best timetable in the dynamic and competitive market. As a result, we will propose a dynamic scheduling method under the oligopoly competition in Taiwan domestic operations. The method is done by dynamically adjusting the timetable in response to variable passenger demands and competitor timetables before the deadline in the related rule. It is expected that the method is able to assist airlines in solving their optimal timetables and flight schedules to enhance their performance and competitiveness in the dynamic and competitive markets. In this research, we will use the mathematical programming technique, combining with the game theory, to develop a dynamic airline scheduling framework. The framework includes four parts: Firstly, we develop a game technique suitable for solving the airline scheduling problem. Then, a passenger choice model is used to forecast the variation of passenger demands. After that, we apply game strategies to find the best timetable adjustment strategy for the target airline, considering the potential variation of competitor timetables. Finally, we construct a flight scheduling model, combining with the passenger demands and the timetable adjustment strategy obtained from the previous stages, to solve for the optimal timetable and flight schedule. We will perform case studies based on a Taiwan airline’s operations to understand the performance and the applicability of the dynamic airline scheduling framework. Finally, conclusions and suggestions will be given. "

Keyword(s)

動態班表規劃
旅客需求變動
競爭對手班表變動
賽局理論
寡占競爭
Dynamic airline scheduling
Variable passenger demands
Variable competitor timetables
Game theory
Oligopoly competition

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Dynamic Airline Scheduling Considering Variations of Passenger Demands and Competitor Timetables

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