Studies on the Criteria of Design Wave Height for Fishing Harbours (II)

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Project title

Code/計畫編號

91農科-2.5.4-漁-F1(3)

Translated Name/計畫中文名

漁港設計波高模式建立方式研究(II)

Funding Organization/主管機關

Council of Agriculture,Executive Yuan

Co-Investigator(s)/共同執行人

蕭葆羲
周宗仁

Department/Unit

Department of Harbor and River Engineering

Website

https://www.grb.gov.tw/search/planDetail?id=941150

Year

2002

Start date/計畫起

01-01-2002

Expected Completion/計畫迄

01-12-2002

Co-Investigator(s)

Bao-Shi Shiau

Bugetid/研究經費

612千元

ResearchField/研究領域

土木水利工程

1. 細部整理現有各個測站的波浪資料.包括波浪紀錄的補遺、除錯等模式的建立.預備分別利用統計和時間序列裡的方法設計程式,並且比對這兩者之間的差異,找出最適合台灣地區或甚至是針對各個測站的補遺、除錯模式; 2. 補充有關波浪的長期統計模式,撰寫電腦程式. 3. 建立模擬長期波浪記錄的數學模式:預備利用時間序列分析裡的方法把目前的自我相關–移動平均(ARMA)模式改寫成能模擬長時間波高時間序列紀錄的模式.如果時間許可的話並計畫利用所謂的卡曼濾波(Kalman filter)來建立模擬長時間波高時間序列的模式.就整體計畫來說,本計畫完成後將可針對台灣地區中型以上的漁港模擬出多年一遇之波高與週期參考值,以利漁港工程設計之用.就本期來說,本期工作完成後將可以: l. 有一套時間序列的分析程式.理論上來說,本程式應該可以應用在各個有關海象、氣象以及水文的紀錄上. 2. 有一套分析、套配波浪紀錄長期統計模式的程式.理論上來說,應用本程式應該可以找出最適合量測資料的長期統計模式,並且可以找出如設計波高等的參考值. 3. 有一套模擬長期時間序列的初步程式. When planning a construction for fishing harbors, quite often is the case that there is only a limited amount of data of the sea state available. As a way out of this dilemma, coastal engineers have either to resort to measurements made somewhere else, which can, however, be located kilometers away from the interested sites; or to start to record for a few months. The acute problems associated with either of these methods are rather clear. It can be argued that, for the former the sea states could bear absolutely no resemblance of the two sites, and as for the latter, there is the problem as to whether short-term sea state characteristics can be used for long-term predictions.

The main objective of this project is to set up the criteria of the design wave height for fishing harbors. In the first place, statistical models for long-term distribution of significant wave heights used by researchers will be summarized. These can include models such as, the lognormal distribution, the Weibull distribution, the beta and the gamma distribution. Then, methods found in the literature will be used to study the possibility of simulating measured wave heights. Models like the Auto-Regressive model (AR), the Moving-Average model (MA), the Auto-Regressive and Moving-Average model (ARMA), and the Auto-Regressive and Moving-Average (ARMA) model, as well as the Auto-Regressive and Integrated Moving-Average (ARIMA) model, are presently under consideration. If there is enough time, nonlinear models will also be taken into consideration. Thirdly, a model for prediction using simulated time series will be built up. It is hoped that with such a model a short-term time series of significant wave heights of, for example, a year, can be elongated and becomes suitable to be used for predicting design wave height, and periods, for fishing harbours, where suitable data are missing.

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Studies on the Criteria of Design Wave Height for Fishing Harbours (II)

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