Sub-Project3:The Study of Risk Assessment in Multi-Disaster and Protection Strategy of Climate Change in Coastal Areas

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Project title

Code/計畫編號

MOST109-2625-M019-008

Translated Name/計畫中文名

氣候變遷下海岸地區之複合性災害風險評估及整合性避災與減災策略研究-氣候變遷下海岸地區之複合性災害風險評估與防護策略研究(總計畫及子計畫三)(I)

Project Coordinator/計畫主持人

Lien-Kwei Chien

Funding Organization/主管機關

National Science and Technology Council

Department/Unit

Department of Harbor and River Engineering

Website

https://www.grb.gov.tw/search/planDetail?id=13531392

Year

2020

Start date/計畫起

01-08-2020

Expected Completion/計畫迄

31-07-2021

Bugetid/研究經費

1680千元

ResearchField/研究領域

防災工程

本計畫為整合型計畫中之子計畫三並依防災學門課題公告項選用「3-1海岸避災與減災策略研究」，並以「環境變遷下臺灣海岸風險分析」、「臺灣海岸避災風險規劃與社經發展模式研發」、「海岸地區複合性災害分析與防護標準檢討研究」為方向進行研究計畫書撰寫。本計畫以整合性海岸管理觀點，針對臺灣海岸地區進行通盤檢討。考量氣候變遷的情境，並依據海岸管理計畫海岸災害包括海岸侵蝕、洪氾溢淹、暴潮溢淹及地層下陷，針對氣候變遷下之台灣海岸地區進行複合性海岸災害危害度、脆弱度與韌性綜合性評估，以建立整合性海岸地區風險評估模式，利用GIS系統圖層建立台灣海岸地區推估預測未來的風險地圖，並期望提出海岸地區的整體性調適管理與防護策略，將助於制定國土利用規劃與海岸地區之整體性防護管理方案。本子計畫三第一年:先蒐集國內外海岸地區規劃及氣候變遷情境之相關文獻資料，並探討分析海岸地區複合性災害因子，同時考量氣候變遷的情境進行分析評估，以作為推估型災害風險評估之依據。另探討整體海岸管理計畫之海岸防護區劃設原則與本計畫前期計畫研究成果比較研析，進而建置本計畫之海岸地區複合性災害風險評估模式，具重要性與創新，並整合海域區與濱海陸地之風險評估地圖，研擬台灣聚落海岸地區的調適管理防護策略，以作為永續海岸管理之依據。第二年:首先探討氣候變遷下海岸都市與聚落地區之災害分析及土地利用現況，並建立基礎環境資料庫及大數據分析，以探討海岸都市及聚落地區危害脆弱韌性因子，同時利用本子計畫第一年建置之複合性災害風險評估模式應用至海岸都市及聚落之示範區域，並結合利用GIS系統圖層繪製示範區複合性風險地圖與驗證分析，最後將示範區複合性風險地圖成果與海岸防護區劃設地圖做比較與分析，以提供水利與國土主管機關參考。第三年:首先蒐集調適防護策略與訪查問卷製作相關文獻之資料，規劃設計研擬示範區域訪查問卷之內容，評選適宜之訪談對象並前往海岸地區社區或聚落進行實地訪查，透過實地訪與分析問卷之內容了解示範區域之實際現地狀況，研擬海岸地區複合性災害風險避災、減災與國土防護策略。最後本子計畫所繪製出之海岸地區複合性災害風險地圖，及利用複合性災害風險地圖成果所研擬之台灣海岸地區複合性災害國土防護策略，可做為未來島嶼與海岸規劃避災減災等防護措施之引導規範，提供相關海岸地區土地使用管理決策之參考。 "This integrated project was divided into five sub-project, in terms of Integrated Coastal Zone Management conduct a holistic consideration. Furthermore, based on the Integrated Coastal Management Plan (ICMP), the four kinds of disaster including coastal corrosion, flooding, surge flooding and subsidence settlement conduct a comprehensive coastal disaster, vulnerability and resilience potential analysis of Taiwan's coastal areas which exposed to climate change. To establish an integrated coastal area risk assessment model and by using the GIS system layer to draw a map of estimated and predicted future risks in the coastal area of Taiwan. And hope to propose a comprehensive management and protection strategy for the coastal area. This integrated project can help to formulate land use plans and comprehensive protection management plans for coastal areas. In the first year of this sub-project, firstly collect relevant domestic and foreign coastal area planning and climate change scenarios and discuss the analysis of multiple disasters factors in coastal areas. On the other hand, the climate change scenario is discussing for analysis and assessment as the basis for the Putative risk assessment. With a comparative study of the principles of coastal protection zones for the overall coastal management plan and the research achievements of the previous plan then establish a multiple disasters risk assessment model for the coastal areas of the project, and to develop an adaptive management and protection strategy for the coastal areas in Taiwan. In the second year, we first discussed the disaster analysis and current land use status of coastal cities and communities under climate change. Based on the environmental database and big data analysis, the factors of the vulnerability and resilience were discussed. By using of the multiple disaster risk assessment model was built in the first year of this project to the coastal cities and community demonstration areas was performed. And using the GIS system layer, the multi-risk map can draw and verify the analysis. Finally, this study was compared and analyzed the results of the multi-risk map of the demonstration area with the map of the coastal protection area. In the third year, we first collected information on the relevant protection strategies and interview questionnaires. Then, based on the above information, design and develop the content of the questionnaires for the demonstration area. And it selects the appropriate interviewees and the coastal communities or settlements for field investigation were performed. Through field investigation and analysis of the questionnaire to understand the actual local conditions of the demonstration area. The coastal disaster protection strategy for Multiple disasters risk is also developed. Finally, an analysis results of multiple disaster risk and risk map of the coastal area was drawn by this project. It can be provided as a guideline for future island and coast planning disaster prevention and mitigation measures, and a reference for decision-making on land use management strategies."

Keyword(s)

整體性海岸管理
氣候變遷情境
複合性災害風險評估模式
GIS風險地圖
海岸減災與防護策略
Integrated Coastal Zone Management
Climate Change Situation
Multiple Disaster Risk Assessment Model； GIS Risk Map
Coastal Protection Strategy

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Sub-Project3:The Study of Risk Assessment in Multi-Disaster and Protection Strategy of Climate Change in Coastal Areas

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