本計畫擬以三年為期探討水庫放水對下游河道洪水位之影響，發展水庫排洪最佳即時操 作模式、防洪最佳操作規則及水庫防洪上限對於供水與溢堤風險分析之綜合探討。本計畫將 利用水文即時及預報資料進行水庫排洪最佳即時操作，以決定水庫最佳即時放水量。本子計 畫之研究成果與其他子計畫整合後，即可建立一整套之水庫排洪最佳即時操作與下游河道放 水預報模式。 本計畫之工作流程包括三大部份，分別為資料蒐集、模式和規則建立與測試及模式和風 險分析應用與檢討，各部分之工作項目可分為三年度進行，第一年為水文等相關資料之蒐 集、水庫排洪最佳即時操作模式之建立、水庫排洪最佳即時操作模式之驗證與測試；第二年 為決策樹資料礦掘法演算建立、水庫排洪最佳操作規則建立、水庫排洪最佳操作規則驗證與 測試以及第三年為水庫即時操作模式於不同水庫防洪上限下，對於供水與溢堤風險分析之綜 合探討。本計畫將以曾文溪流域為範例，建立水庫排洪最佳即時操作模式和防洪最佳操作規 則。 We are proposing a three-year project. The major purpose of the project is to analyze the influence of reservoir releases on stages at the downstream stations during a flood. Additionally, it is proposed to develop the optimal real-time reservoir operation model and rule for flood control. Using the real-time and forecast hydrological observations, the developed operation rules can be used to determine the reservoir releases during the flood. Furthermore, using the results obtained from the proposed project and other related projects will allow us to establish a reservoir flood control operations and downstream river flood forecasting model for a river basin. The tasks to be carried out can be grouped into the following three general categories: (1) data collection, (2) model and rule development and verification, and (3) risk analysis. The specific tasks to be carried out in the first year of the project are (1) collection of data, (2) development of real-time optimal operation model for flood-control, and (3) verification of the model. In the second year, the tasks are (1) building of decision tree data mining algorithms, C4.5, (2) development of real-time optimal operation rules for flood-control, and (3) verification of the rules. The task in the third year is to process risk analysis with different upper limit sets between water supply and over-levee. The developed methodology will be applied for Tsengwen Reservoir in the Tsengwen river basin. The results obtained from the optimal real-time reservoir operation model and rule will provide the optimal real-time reservoir releases.
Reservoir real-time operation for flood control
Reservoir inflow hydrograph forecast
channel water level simulation