Introducing the Cost of Climate Change Adaptation into the Business Case for Aviation Biofuels

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基本資料

Project title

Code/計畫編號

MOST109-2410-H309-010

Translated Name/計畫中文名

考量氣候變遷調適成本對於航空生質燃油應用之影響

Project Coordinator/計畫主持人

Cherng-Yuan Lin

Funding Organization/主管機關

National Science and Technology Council

Co-Investigator(s)/共同執行人

盧曉櫻

Department/Unit

Department of Aviation and Maritime Transportation Management

Website

https://www.grb.gov.tw/search/planDetail?id=13530129

Year

2020

Start date/計畫起

01-08-2020

Expected Completion/計畫迄

31-07-2021

Bugetid/研究經費

937千元

ResearchField/研究領域

土木水利工程

為因應全球氣候變遷課題，航空運輸產業已有2020年排碳量不再增加，以及2050年排碳量將相較於2005年減半之目標，主要將透過新式科技、生質燃油、飛機操作、導航與基礎建設，以及市場經濟措施達成，其中又以生質燃油之使用扮演最重要之減量角色。此外，於減少碳排放之同時，氣候變遷影響亦急遽加速，包括海平面上升、氣溫變化、強降雨以及風暴增加等，各種氣候變遷風險將影響所有人類與各種生物之生存，經濟以及產業之活動，尤其是對快速發展之航空運輸產業更有顯著之影響。本研究將探討各種氣候變遷事件對於不同飛航航線短中長期之不同影響，並進一步衡量生質燃油之使用於各種氣候條件下，其經濟面以及環境面之社會成本，探討生質燃油之適用條件與相關配套措施，提出適用於我國之航空運輸生質燃油政策與航線之氣候變遷調適作法。研究範圍主要選取台灣桃園國際機場出發之主要航線，包括亞洲線(至香港赤臘角機場)、歐洲線(至法國巴黎戴高樂機場)與北太平洋航線(至美國舊金山機場)等，以涵蓋不同類別之飛航路線。研究首先主要為確定不同航線之氣候變遷風險並評估其影響之可能性，並建立風險矩陣，衡量在不同之氣候風險狀況下，不同航線之燃油消耗以及各種廢氣之排放量與其社會成本，並和飛航之經濟與財務成本進行比較。接著進一步衡量在使用生質燃料之情況下，於各種氣候風險之成本效益分析，以及其對航空公司與旅運量之影響。接著為探討航空運輸生質燃油之適用條件、適用於我國之發展政策與配套措施，以及各種不同航線未來面對之氣候變遷風險與可行之調適行動。研究成果除了將發表於期刊與研討會論文外，並可提供我國政府單位、航空公司與機場之政策訂定參考。 The international aviation industry has a target of achieving Carbon Neutral Growth by 2020 (CNG 2020), meaning that its CO2 emissions will be capped at their 2020 level. In addition, carbon emissions should be reduced to half of their 2005 level by 2050. In order to achieve these goals, the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) has introduced a “basket of measures,” the same concepts as the four pillar strategy proposed by the International Aviation Transport Association (IATA). These emission mitigation measures comprise technology (new aircraft technology and sustainable aviation fuels), operations (airport and air traffic service operational improvements), infrastructure improvements, and economic measures. While the industry has been vigorously reducing emission from aircraft and airport operations, global warming and climate change is on-going and inevitable. According to the latest special report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), climate change has led to some actual risks – rise in sea-levels, temperature change, changes in precipitation levels, increase in storm activity etc. The impacts of these climate risks not only threaten the lives of all beings, they also jeopardise the sustainable development of economic activities and industries, especially the fast-growing aviation industry. For the industry to continue to operate under a severe climate change environment, there is a strong need for it to evaluate climate change adaptation issues and adjust business plans accordingly, and to understand the impacts of climate change on commercial flights and the benefits of using aviation biofuels for mitigating emissions. Mathematical models will be developed for evaluating the economic and environmental costs of flights. The flights considered for case studies will include intra-Asian, Asia-Europe and transpacific flights, namely TPE-HKG, TPE-CDG and TPE-SFO routes for analysis. The research will firstly identify the climate change risks for different flight stages, for short term and medium-long term timeframes, followed by evaluating the economic and environmental social costs of fuel burn and engine exhaust emissions for flight routes, under different climate change risks. The estimation for the environmental benefits and financial costs of the applications of biofuels for defined weather events will be performed using mathematical models. This research also attempts to combine aviation climate change adaptation issues with one of the most influential mitigation measures, the use of aviation biofuels, and then further assess impacts on airline operations and passenger demand taking relevant government policies into consideration. Based on the research results, the potential climate change adaptation measures for Taiwanese airlines and related authorities for mitigating climate change impacts will be proposed. The empirical analysis of the research results will be applicable for the air transport industry in Taiwan, and will enable recommendations for the Taiwanese government, airports and airlines.

Keyword(s)

航空運輸
生質燃油
氣候變遷
調適措施
環境成本
Aviation industry
biofuels
climate change
adaptation strategies
environmental costs

DSpace CRIS

Introducing the Cost of Climate Change Adaptation into the Business Case for Aviation Biofuels

基本資料

Description