Abstract
一、設計、建構與部署新世代海洋資訊系統是未來漁業管理上的一個重要環節。本計畫將設計與實現這個系統，提供未來研究與管理上的一個基礎。本系統必須是可延伸的穩定，以及容易使用。我們所用的技術包含了巨量資料儲存體概念，可以進行資料庫平行化、裂片化、負載平衡、以及維持資料完整性。最終系統將會整合火把系統、VMS系統、eLogbook系統、VDR系統、以及漁管系統。在管理層面的角度，我們設計依照法規而進行自動警示。讓系統直接處裡Excel、CSV、或甚至OpenDocument Word檔案，來節省人工。在後續設計上，還需設計連結介面，讓即時資料直接進入我們的資料庫。除了已完成的各資料庫的拆解並重新拼湊出巨量資料庫的版本，也設計了簡易介面來示範這些資料庫中資料的交流。我們亦設計了新的查詢介面，也有自行發展的圖資模組，也收集了世界資料如EEZ、FAO區域、時區並將其併入我們的系統之中。新的畫面採用全幅設計，可以有效地觀看實際狀況以及旁邊的文字資訊，允許更有效的監控與評估。我們亦逐筆檢視衛星傳輸資料驗證系統的正確性，也測試過系統的環境。但是所有資料都能夠相互參照並整理出管理上重要資訊，如越界、超捕、與違停。從期中至今設計出的主要新功能包含了半自動風險監控、配額監控、漁區洋區定義模組、eLogbook與卸魚比對、觀察員追蹤、以及無數的輔助圖資。另外除將系統實作於wsgi架構上提升超過5倍的效能，亦會研發使用編譯式腳本語言更進一步的提升速度。二、對我國之魷釣業最主要之利用資源，即阿根廷魷魚，進行歷史性資料分析，瞭解資源動態脈絡；換言之，即使用各種適當之方法分析各年CPUE高低之原因，及各年內隨時間推移之空間移動趨勢。 本年計畫包含下列重要工作項目，分別為量化及圖示化1995年-2017年雙週別之漁獲量、努力量及CPUE之分布樣式，及進行年間時間序列分析和各年之空間相關分析。三、探討海洋環境因子如何影響秋刀魚在北太平洋的時空分佈。提供即時海洋環境資料及海況預報，與漁業資料整合。以提高漁民的投資報酬率，並提升管理的有效性。最終目標是達到資料整合與漁場即時預報。本年度持續整合並更新環境資料，包括表水溫，表水鹽度，水溫鋒面 ，表水溫鋒面頻度，海面高度，海洋生產力，洋流流向及流速，渦旋動量 及海洋生產力，以高解析度圖相，每日更新與發佈。並整合過去漁業資料（CPUE），0.5 X 0.5 度方格解析度，將CPUE的空間分佈，按年月份與上述之各環境參數之歷史資料套疊。提供預報系統給秋刀魚漁船實驗性試用，將提供三項資訊：1. 每日更新與即時發佈（daily）前述之環境資料，發布之網站，包含彩色與黑白兩個版本，並可以自由放大縮小，以利漁民方便使用。2. 提供最相關之歷史資訊。亦即，透過比對歷史和當下環境資料，提供最接近當下之歷史環境資料，並套疊CPUE之分布。3. 利用我們2018年建立的環境資料與歷史CPUE關聯性之Boosted regression tree，代入即時環境資料，預測當日秋刀魚的出現機率，並呈現所預測機率之空間分布圖。實驗船公司可以透過網路，進入資料庫伺服器，看到這些資訊並提供給漁船。執行後續將與漁民討論如何改善此系統。四、大洋的海洋環境變動會受全球氣候變遷的影響而隨之改變，鮪旗魚類及其他海洋生物的分布與洄游環境因而受到影響，此等環境變動造成海洋生態的衝擊及漁場與漁海況變動已是近年來魚類生態學者及產業界關注的課題之一。 本團隊以三大洋台灣遠洋鮪釣鮪旗魚資源為研究對象，預計彙整三大洋遠洋鮪釣主要鮪旗魚漁況變動與環境因子間的變動關係，並依時空間與魚種特性提出至少兩種預報模式。本年度以我國在印度洋鮪釣作業的鮪類作為對象，研究印度洋鮪漁場(漁況)與海洋環境之短期變動特性，建構印度洋鮪釣作業漁場與環境變動結合的漁海況變動模式，另探討印度洋偶極指數IOD變動下所造成環境變動因素對鮪旗魚之釣獲率與時空間短期變動的影響，探討洋區間漁況預報之可行性，並評估環境變遷對產業或管理可能遭遇的問題。五、正鰹魚群動態容易受到大尺度海洋環境變動影響，尤其聖嬰南方振盪(ENSO)直接影響熱帶太平洋海域鮪類的洄游與豐度，許多研究已提出氣候變遷對正鰹棲地與豐度的預測模式，而本研究將著重於漁場變動分析，以提昇漁船及漁政管理單位對正鰹魚場之短期預測能力。本研將以我國中西太平洋鰹鮪圍網作業的正鰹為研究對象，分析中西太平洋正鰹漁場與海洋環境之短中期變動特性，並探討太平洋氣候變遷ENSO事件所造成環境變動因素對正鰹漁獲率與時空間分佈影響，以評估海洋環境變遷可能對漁場分佈的影響，建構中西太平洋正鰹潛在漁場預測模式。 一、Designing, implementing, and deploying a next-generation oceanic information system is a key to future fisheries management. This project focuses on creating such a system, providing a basis for future development. Besides being extensible, stable, and easy to use, this system must also contain the following elements. It must use big data storage technologies, which allows sharding, parallelism, load balancing, and data integrity. The final system integrates existing VMS database, fisheries management database, the Torch system, and report databases. The management component of this system will be designed according to the regulations and requirements of the government. We will also consider to process electronic files such as word and excel files and automatically parse them into the database to lessen human tasks.二、The objective of this project is to analyze historical fishing data obtained from Taiwanese jigging fleet fished in the Southwest Atlantic (SWA), and further to explore annual fluctuation of Argentine shortfin squid, and to formulize spatial and temporal patterns of squid abundance.三、The aim of this year's study will construct a facility in order to predict oncoming fishing sites. Two major tasks are included: the first, we will quantify and visualize the distribution of catch, effort and catch per unit effort (CPUE) of Argentine shortfin squid in SWA with a frequency of one frame per fortnight, and the other will forecast year-class strength and intra-annual spatial-temporal distribution.四、Major and serial analytic procedures are taken, including:（一）maintaining the squid databank and extracting BNPS data for detailed studies,（二）standardizing fishing effort using vessel-day (v-d -1 ) as unit,（三）estimating CPUE as abundance index,（四）enumerating spatial-temporal matrix of the CPUE, and visualizing their geographic distributions,（五）estimating spatial-temporal matrix of environmental variables such as seawater temperature and charting related geographic distributions,（六）determining the training and validating datasets for formulizing feasible prediction models,（七）quantifying the spatial structure, and finally,（八）preparing a tentative prediction model.五、 Feasibility test for using environmental data to predict fishing ground for Pacific saury. This project aims to develop a now-cast system for using environmental data to predict fishing ground for Pacific saury, in order to provide useful tools for fisheries management and lower the cost of fishery operations. Here, we propose to integrate environmental data, including Sea Surface Temperature, Sea Level Height anomaly, ocean color, sea surface salinity, geostrophic flow velocity and direction, and calculate ocean temperature gradient, frequency of temperature front, and eddy kinetic energy. We will display the ocean conditions with high-resolution maps and update the information daily. We then integrate CPUE data of Pacific saury with the environmental data (monthly data with 0.5 degree resolution). We will work with saury fishermen to test our system, using experimental fishing boats. We will provide three sources of information: First, the daily updated environmental data, with color and black-and-white versions and zoom-in function; second, the most relevant historical environmental data associated with CPUE; third, the distribution map of occurrence probability of saury predicted by a month-specific Boosted regression tree using the updated environmental data. Here, the specific Boosted regression tree model was parameterized by historical environmental data and CPUE. Registered fisheries companies can access the information in our data servers through internet. We can then evaluate the performance of our now-cast system.六、We will develop two forecast models. First, based on the 0.5-degree grid data, we will try the Maximum Entropy method to link CPUE with environmental factors. Second, we will integrate all models that we developed (including Zero-inflated GLM, Zero-inflated GAM, Boosted regression tree, Habitat suitability index, and Maximum Entropy) to do ensemble forecast. We will also calculate the fishing ground averaged CPUE and environment variables, and employ GLM and GAM. Finally, we will estimate centroid of the CPUE distribution, in order to study the migratory trajectory of Pacific saury. We will then link the longitude and latitude with environment variables, using GLM and GAM.七、Feasibility analysis on the fishing condition forecast of tunas for the Taiwanese tuna longline fishery in Indian Sea. Climatic oscillations and changes clearly affect population dynamics and many ecological processes in marine ecosystems. Variations in population abundances and distributions of pelagic tuna species are consistently associated with marine environmental variations in different spatial-temporal scale. Fishing ground forecasting is therefore gaining popularity in the fishing industries of many countries around the world. Environmental factors may also influence fish habitats and fishing grounds, and therefore will have positive or negative effects on catch rates. At the present time, modern technologies such as remotely sensed images obtained from satellites and model data, enable the gathering of information about the climatic characteristics and productivity of large areas of the oceans in a short time and at relatively low cost.八、The purposes of this study were to investigate whether the climatic and marine environmental variations affect catches and distributions for Yellowfin, bigeye and albacore tuna in the Indian Ocean. At the same time, a Geographic Information System (GIS) and Remote Sensing (RS) using the GAM, GLM and/or HSI model were tried to combine and develop various forecasting systemson the potential fishing zone of big-eye,albacore in the Indian Ocean. Finally, more than two kinds of feasibility analysis on the fishing condition forecast of big-eye and albacore were further to compare and provide for fishery operation in practice in these areas.九、The feasibility analysis on purse seine fishing condition of skipjack tuna in the western and central Pacific Ocean:Distribution and abundance of Skipjack tuna is highly variable and is considered to be influenced by large-scale oceanographic variability. Particularly, ENSO is known to have strong spatial impact on fisheries for this species. Numerical model simulation is frequently reported that attempt to project the future impact of climate change on the habitat variation of tunas in the tropic Pacific Ocean. In this study, we propose an alternative approach involving the implementation of climate change link between environmental factors and fishing ground forecasting in short-tern scale for purse scene fishery in the western and central Pacific Ocean.Fishing data of Skipjack tuna from Taiwanese purse scene fishing boats will be archived and analyzed its fishing ground variation associated with ocean environmental factors. We attempt to clarify the influence of ENSO events on the fishing ground of skipjack tuna. A fishing ground forecasting model of short-tern scale will be provided for the purse scene fisheries.十、Stock dynamics of Illex argentinus and Dosidicus gigas from the Taiwanese squid-jigging fishery: The objective of this project is to analyze stock dynamics of Argentine shortfin squid in the SWA and jumbo flying squid in the Southeast Pacific from the Taiwanese distant-water squid jigging fishery. There is no regional organization in charge of the Argentine shortfin squid currently. However, the fishing states are required to have interests on target species and provide contribution to researches, which may achieve the goal of sustainable resources and fisheries, and to meet the needs of the regional fisheries management organization in near future. The jumbo squid is a critical component in ecosystem of the EPO and is the main target of squid fisheries in this region since 1970 and has been managed by the SPRFMO since 2012. The objective of this project is to analyze stock dynamics of these two squid species. The issues to be addressed are: (1) to examine development and composition of squid fishing fleet of Taiwan; (2) to standardize the fishing efforts of Argentine shortfin squid fishery; (3) to analyze temporal trend in stock abundance of Argentine shortfin squid; (4) to explore spatial distribution pattern of Argentine shortfin squid; (5) to analyze temporal trend in stock abundance of jumbo squid; (6) to explore spatial distribution pattern of jumbo squid; (7) to collect basic biological information of jumbo squid; and (8) maintain and update the squid fishery database.十一、Studies on fisheries biology and resource of Pacific saury: The Pacific saury fishery is one of the major deep sea fisheries in Taiwan. Taiwan has become the largest saury harvesting country since 2013. Production and its value of the saury catch in 2017 were about 104,000 mt and 4.36 billion NTD, respectively. Therefore, the Taiwanese saury fishery plays an important role on both the international and domestic fisheries. Taiwan is a member of the local international fisheries management organization –North Pacific Fisheries Commission (NPFC), which was established in 2015. Pacific saury is one of the main target species for the sustainable utilization management in the NPFC. Therefore, it is necessary to implement the studies on the fisheries biology and resource of the Pacific saury in the North Pacific, energetically.
