Development of Real-Time Hillslope Disaster Warning System Using Ensemble Rainfall Forecasting(I)

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Project title

Code/計畫編號

MOST103-2625-M492-007

Translated Name/計畫中文名

即時測預報與多層級應變作為之分析與連結-以易受坡地與洪氾災害之高屏地區為例-子計畫:結合定量降雨預報進行山區坡地災害即時預警模式之研發(I)

Funding Organization/主管機關

National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction

Co-Investigator(s)/共同執行人

何瑞益(計畫主持人)
陳毅青

Department/Unit

Ocean Energy and Engineering Technology

Website

https://www.grb.gov.tw/search/planDetail?id=8319164

Year

2014

Start date/計畫起

01-08-2014

Expected Completion/計畫迄

31-07-2015

Co-Investigator(s)

Kwan-Tun Lee

Bugetid/研究經費

482千元

ResearchField/研究領域

防災工程

臺灣地區因特殊地形、地質與水文條件易於誘發山坡地坍塌，於颱風豪雨侵襲期間，往往造成崩塌與土石流之坡地災害；其中脆弱的地質條件為坡地災害之潛在因子，而豐沛的降雨條件則為坡地災害的觸發因子。隨著數值高程資料精度的增加，使得工程師能依照集水區地文特性，進而建構淺層崩塌分析與土石流流動模式，藉此預測淺層崩塌發生之時間與位置，以及土石流流動之影響範圍。本計畫將利用地形指數模式模擬降雨期間集水區地表逕流與表層土壤飽和水位變化，而後將集水區中各格點之表層土壤飽和水位配合淺層崩塌模式，以評估淺層崩塌發生的可能性。當預測集水區產生淺層崩塌時，地表逕流與崩塌生成土砂量之分析結果，將作為土石流流動模式所需之上游邊界條件，以模擬下游因土石流流動可能致災之區域。此外，本計畫擬採用定量系集降雨預報實驗之分析結果與雨量即時回傳資料，結合淺層崩塌即時預警模式與土石流流動模式，期能增加颱洪期間山區坡地災害應變時間。本年度第一年計畫執行(103/08/01~104/07/31)，已依規劃期程內容，順利完成臺灣南部高屏溪流域之水文、地質、以及地文等資料蒐集，並完成應用地形指數模式結合邊坡穩定分析之方法，以建置淺層崩塌預警模式，且本計畫所得之分析結果與災害實際發生時間相符。因此應用本年度所發展之分析方法，應可藉此發佈即時山溪型淺層崩塌災害之警訊；第二年(104/08/01~105/07/31)將發展土石流流動模式，以模擬因土石流流動之可能受災範圍，並且結合第一年之研究成果與降雨預報模式，藉此建構完整之山區坡地災害即時預警系統。未來將配合整合計畫，針對選定颱洪案例進行模擬分析，以期將研究成果應用於實際防災工作，減少因坡地災害所造成人員傷亡與財產損失。 Taiwan is prone to landslide and debris flow during heavy rainstorms due to its topographic, geological and hydrologic conditions. Fragile geological conditions induce a high potentiality to cause hillslope disasters, and severe rainstorms are the trigger to result in slope collapses. By using high resolution digital elevation data, current engineers are able to develop analytical model for shallow landslide prediction and debris flow simulation based on watershed geomorphologic characteristics. In this project, variation of the surface runoff and saturated water table on hillslope will be simulated by using a TOPMODEL, and then the temporal water level for shallow landslide prediction. When the shallow landslide in the watershed is predicted, the simulated surface runoff and the volume of the shallow landslide are used as the upstream boundary condition for the numerical model of debris flow to delineate the disaster area. In addition, real-time ensemble quantitative precipitation forecast and feedback rainfall record will be utilized to increase the response time of hillslope disaster during the heavy rainstorms. During the process of first-year project (2014/08/01~2015/07/31), the hydrological, geologic, geomorphologic data from Kao-Ping River basin in southern Taiwan had been collected. The TOPMODEL and the instability of the slopes were also used to develop the shallow landslide warning system in the first-year project. The results show that the predicted shallow landslide occurrence time was found coincidence with the field investigation data. It is therefore considered promising to apply the proposed analytical procedure for real time shallow landslide warning. In the second-year project (2015/08/01~2016/07/31), a numerical model of debris flow will be developed to simulate the disaster area of debris flow. Furthermore, the both results of first-year and second-year projects will combine with rainfall-forecasting model to develop the real-time hillslope disaster warning system. The record of shallow landslides and debris flows from the typhoon events will be provided to the model simulation and conformed to the planning of the integrated project. The results obtained in this study can be applied to practical assignment of disaster prevention and provide valuable information to decrease the magnitude of the loss of lives and properties.

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Development of Real-Time Hillslope Disaster Warning System Using Ensemble Rainfall Forecasting(I)

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