Simulation and Disaster Management for Suburban Landslide under Extreme Weather Conditions

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Project title

Code/計畫編號

MOST105-2625-M492-012

Translated Name/計畫中文名

劇烈天氣引致都市與鄰近地區複合型災害之情境模擬與災害管理-子計畫:劇烈天氣下都市鄰近山區崩塌之情境模擬與災害管理(I)

Funding Organization/主管機關

National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction

Co-Investigator(s)/共同執行人

何瑞益(計畫主持人)

Department/Unit

Ocean Energy and Engineering Technology

Website

https://www.grb.gov.tw/search/planDetail?id=11908228

Year

2016

Start date/計畫起

01-08-2016

Expected Completion/計畫迄

31-07-2017

Co-Investigator(s)

Kwan-Tun Lee

Bugetid/研究經費

571千元

ResearchField/研究領域

防災工程

本研究依科技部規劃研究課題 3-2「城市防洪減災策略研究」中，研究項目1、都市及近都會區複合災害之耐災力風險度評估。2、評估都市化趨勢影響洪災之因子（都會區、次級城市、鄉鎮層級應區分）。4、都市洪水災害風險分區劃設。5、都市洪峰消減方案研擬。7、其他(都市鄰近區域危險範圍之劃設與泥砂量對於逕流量之影響)。以及規劃研究課題3-6「流域洪災管理之研發與應用」中，研究項目6、以高淹水風險地區或土地使用強度較高區域為研究示範區域，例如人口密集之都會區域，或重要河川、水庫之集流區域。7、結合即時監測資料之模擬與預報技術探討以強降雨引致複合型災害。 8、其他(流域上游集水區崩塌模擬技術之研發與應用)。台灣都市鄰近山區地形陡峭與地質脆弱，加上面臨全球氣候變遷，颱風極端強降雨致使都市鄰近山區發生嚴重崩塌災害。為減緩未來遭逢劇烈天氣下，都市鄰近山區坡地災害所帶來之衝擊，本研究之目的乃在發展高精度與高效能之淺層崩塌模式、崩塌體積推估模式、以及土石流流動模式，以利於都市鄰近山區減災策略之後續研擬。研究中為能掌握都市近郊地形與地表覆蓋之空間特性，將採用高解析度格點演算方式，模擬崩塌轉換土石流之運動行為，並嘗試配合非結構性工程方法，以減少土石流等坡地災害之傷亡，達到災害管理之目的。本計畫將以台北都會區之鄰近山區為研究地區。第一年計畫(2016-2017)將發展高精度淺層崩塌模式與水文模式，分析崩塌可能發生的地點與範圍，並建置崩塌體積推估模式，以推估崩塌產生之土砂量與逕流量。第二年計畫(2017-2018)將發展土石流流動模式，以模擬土石流運動時之流變行為，同時配合土砂量與逕流量作為土石流模式之上游邊界輸入條件，進而計算可能被土石流影響之下游區域。第三年計畫(2018-2019)將嘗試配合非結構性工程方法，以減少坡地災害之影響區域；並同時配合總計畫串接各子計畫分析案例以進行坡地災害分析，期能將研究內容落實於防災工作。 Taiwan is prone to landslide hazards in suburban areas due to its steep topography and fragile geology. Global climate change will likely alter rainfall intensity and duration and arise the landslide risk. Accurate landslide simulations can effectively help reduce loss of life and property in abovementioned disasters. The purpose of this study is to develop a high-precision and high-performance shallow landslide model, landslide volume estimate model, and debris flow model, providing valuable information for suburban disaster management. This study will simulate the conversion of landslide and debris flow based on the spatial characteristics of suburban by using highly resolution digital elevation data. Non-structural measures to mitigate the impact of landslide and debris flows will be also discussed in this study to improve disaster management. This project will be implemented for the Taipei metropolitan and the suburban mountain areas. The first-year project (2016-2017) will be focused on developing a shallow landslide model and a hydrological model to simulate the landslide and its impact area. This study during the first year will also develop a landslide volume model to calculate the amounts of sediment and runoff. In the second-year (2017-2018), a numerical model of debris flow will be developed to simulate the rheological behavior of debris flows. The proposed model will be coupled with the upstream boundary conditions (such as the simulated sediment and runoff results) to delineate the impact area of debris flows. This project will finally study non-structural measures and theirs impacts on disaster reduction in the third year (2018-2019). The results obtained will be conjugate to the integrated project for practical disaster prevention.

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Simulation and Disaster Management for Suburban Landslide under Extreme Weather Conditions

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