Quantifying Coral Reef Resilience to Climate Change and Human Development: An Evaluation of Multiple Empirical Frameworks

Abstract

The integrity of coral reefs has increasingly been threatened by human development and climate change. As a result, the concept of ecological resilience - an ecosystem's capability to resist and recover from environmental stressors - has become an important aspect of coral reef conservation. In this study, coral reef resilience was quantitatively scored in Kenting National Park (KNP), Taiwan, using four different assessment frameworks: the first uses the opinions of local reef experts, the second includes metrics specific to the local reef context, the third combines the previous two approaches, and the fourth relies solely on ecological metrics from biodiversity surveys. To evaluate the accuracy of each assessment, the resulting resilience scores were compared with historical coral recovery rates, which served as a proxy for resilience. While each approach to measuring resilience has its merits and drawbacks, the picture of resilience became clearest when a few key indicators were included to reflect core ecosystem processes. Trends in resilience scores varied depending on the makeup of the assessment's indicators, and there was little correlation between the baseline metrics measured using different data collection methods. However, all resilience assessment trends indicated that KNP's Nanwan area is high in resilience. This is likely due to the effects of local tidally-induced upwelling, which significantly relieve the growing thermal stress placed on surrounding coral communities. Ultimately, the most successful assessments were those that empirically quantified ecological processes and local factors with only a few indicators, rather than broader approaches that measured many indicators. These findings are particularly relevant for reef managers to consider as they develop and employ resilience-based management strategies.