Deep learning time-series modeling for assessing land subsidence under reduced groundwater use

Abstract

Intensive groundwater extraction and a severe 2021 drought have worsened land subsidence in Taiwan's Choshui Delta, highlighting the need for effective predictive modeling to guide mitigation. In this study, we develop a machine learning framework for subsidence analysis using electricity consumption data from pumping wells as a proxy for groundwater extraction. A long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network is trained to reconstruct missing subsidence records and forecast subsidence trends, while an artificial neural network links well electricity usage to groundwater level fluctuations. Using these tools, we identify groundwater-level decline from pumping as a key driver of subsidence. The LSTM model achieves high accuracy in reproducing historical subsidence and provides reliable predictions of subsidence behavior. Scenario simulations indicate that reducing groundwater pumping, simulated by lowering well electricity use, allows groundwater levels to recover and significantly slows the rate of land subsidence. To assess the effectiveness of pumping reduction strategies, two artificial scenarios were simulated. The average subsidence rate at the Xiutan Elementary School multi-layer compression monitoring well (MLCW) decreased from 2.23 cm/year (observed) to 1.94 cm/year in first scenario and 1.34 cm/year in second scenario, demonstrating the potential of groundwater control in mitigating land subsidence. These findings underscore the importance of integrating groundwater-use indicators into subsidence models and demonstrate that curtailing groundwater extraction can effectively mitigate land subsidence in vulnerable deltaic regions.