Modeling Dynamic River Systems under Extreme Floods in Different Landscapes of Monsoon Climate Zone (I)

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Project title

Code/計畫編號

NSC94-2211-E019-022

Translated Name/計畫中文名

不同地區於極端洪水期間之河川動態系統模擬(I)

Project Coordinator/計畫主持人

Kwan-Tun Lee

Funding Organization/主管機關

National Science and Technology Council

Department/Unit

Department of Harbor and River Engineering

Website

https://www.grb.gov.tw/search/planDetail?id=1115448

Year

2005

Start date/計畫起

01-08-2005

Expected Completion/計畫迄

01-07-2006

Bugetid/研究經費

360千元

ResearchField/研究領域

土木水利工程

由過去十年來全球各地一再發生重大災難的洪水事件顯示，在面臨全球氣候變遷情況下，迫切需要水文工程師發展極端洪水事件之分析方法。因此，本研究擬藉由俄羅斯與台灣不同地區之極端水文紀錄資料，發展極端洪水期間之河川動態系統模式。研究中將利用水文模式進行水文模擬，並且比較其模擬結果於實際應用上之可行性。本研究計畫將考慮洪水之不穩定性，藉以發展時變性水文預測模式之模擬準則。俄方研究團隊所發展的洪水循環模式(FC model)，已應用於俄國地區之洪水模擬與預測；此模式是採用逕流係數，以描述集水區內不同水體的轉換關係。而台灣研究團隊所發展的運動波－地貌瞬時單位歷線模式(KW-GIUH model)，是以集水區地形與水流運動特性為主，而模擬水流於集水區的運動歷程，也已應用於台灣集水區之即時洪水模擬與設計流量之推估。本研究計畫之水文分析與模式建立，是分別由台俄雙邊個別執行，而後再進一步整合雙邊之研究結果，以建立一套新的極端洪水事件分析方法。本計畫之主要工作內容如下：第一年計畫主要著重於利用不同尺度洪水事件之紀錄資料，進行研究集水區水文反應函數之非線性分析。研究中將收集俄國與台灣地區，集水區面積範圍為10 至1000 km2 之水文紀錄與地文資料，藉由收集研究集水區之水文與地文資料，分析不同面積之水文反應函數特性，以瞭解集水區尺度與極端水文事件之非線性關係。第二年計畫將建立集水區地文因子之分析模式，研究中將分析之地文因子包含集水區荷頓級序、分岔比、Shannon 熵度、河川長度、集水面積、水力幾何參數等，而後探討極端洪水事件與河川系統之相互影響，以及河川動態系統模式於極端洪水事件之模擬情形。第三年計畫則將集水區水文與地文資料，應用降雨逕流模式(FC and KW-GIUH)，以進行實際逕流模擬與驗證。藉且由集水區水文與地文特性觀點，對集水區之非線性做一完整性討論與分析。若集水區水文與地文條件之尺度效應對模式模擬的影響顯著，則將進行模式架構之修正，考慮集水區尺度對水文模擬之影響，以正確模擬集水區之降雨逕流關係。本國際合作計畫擬透過台俄雙方學者之合作，包括基本地文與水文資料交換，以及水文模式建立之經驗交流，藉由討論與訓練研習機會，以改進雙方之水文模擬精度，並能夠共同發表國內與國際期刊論文。" "The frequent occurrence of disastrous floods during last ten years in the world have shown the urgent requirement for hydrologists to develop new approach to analyze the extreme floods under the global climate changes condition. By using the new approach for extreme flood analyses, we propose to compare extreme hydrologic records from basins in Russia and Taiwan, which exist in different landscape and climate conditions. We will test new hydrological models and compare our results as much as feasible with practically acceptable models. The research target is to develop a new basis for hydrologic predictions in contemporary changing conditions, which introduce non-stationarity in floods. The flood cycle model (FC model) developed by Russian team, which adopted a structure of runoff generation factors for description of various water body transformations on the basin, has been applied to Russia for flood simulation and prediction. The kinematic-wave based geomorphic IUH (KW-GIUH model) developed by Taiwan team, which is based on watershed topography and flow kinematic characteristics to describe the flow itinerary, has also been applied to Taiwan for real-time flood simulation and design discharge estimation. In this project, these two models will be performed by the Russian and Taiwan teams separately in the prior stage of the project, and then the experiences from both sides will be integrated for further develop for a new approach. The working plan of the project is as follows: First year: The project will be concentrated on raw data analysis to realize the nonlinearity from mild to extreme floods. Wide range of geomorphologic and hydrologic data (watershed size from 10 to 1000 km2) will be collected from Russia and Taiwan. The nonlinearity and scaling of the watershed hydrologic response will be detailed analyzed in different sizes of watersheds from Russia and Taiwan. Second year: Developing the tools for analyzing watershed geomorphic factors such as Horton-Straler and Shrieve orders, bifurcation coefficients, Shannon entropy, channel lengths and basin areas distributions, hydraulic geometry parameters, etc. Investigating the interactions between flood behavior and river system patterns, then modeling the dynamic river system in extreme flood conditions. Third year: Verification and testing of two rainfall-runoff models (FC and KW-GIUH) will be performed using the same datasets for experimental objects. An integrated summarization for the nonlinearity through the viewpoint of the watershed hydrologic and geomorphologic characteristics will be obtained. If the scale effect resulting from hydrologic and geomorphic conditions is significant enough to have an explicit conclusion, the models structure will be modified to consider the influence of the watershed scale. It is hope that a long-term cooperation between Russian and Taiwan scientists, including the data and algorithms interchange, consultations, workshops and probation trainings in both countries, joint domestic and international publications."

Keyword(s)

洪水預測
降雨－逕流模擬
非線性
尺度
河川網路型態
極端洪水事件
氣候與地貌變異
Flood prediction
rainfall-runoff modelling
non-linearity
scaling
river network pattern
Extreme flood
climate and landscape changes

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Modeling Dynamic River Systems under Extreme Floods in Different Landscapes of Monsoon Climate Zone (I)

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