Evaluating Impacts of Sampling Error on the Assessment of Sailfish Stock in the Eastern Taiwan Waters Using a Monte Carlo Simulation Method

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基本資料

Project title

Code/計畫編號

NSC96-2313-B019-007-MY3

Translated Name/計畫中文名

以蒙地卡羅模擬方法探討抽樣誤差對台灣東部海域雨傘旗魚資源評估之影響

Project Coordinator/計畫主持人

Sheng-Ping Wang

Funding Organization/主管機關

National Science and Technology Council

Co-Investigator(s)/共同執行人

孫志陸

Department/Unit

Department of Environmental Biology and Fisheries Science

Website

https://www.grb.gov.tw/search/planDetail?id=1730040

Year

2009

Start date/計畫起

01-08-2009

Expected Completion/計畫迄

01-07-2010

Bugetid/研究經費

534千元

ResearchField/研究領域

漁業

" 雨傘旗魚無論是在成長、性比或是性成熟方面在雌雄間都具有顯著差異，且台灣海域之雨傘旗魚乃為多種漁業所利用。然而，在缺乏長期努力量與漁具別與年齡別漁獲量資料的情形下，許多可用分析性別與多重漁具別的資源評估模式並無法應用於此資源。因此，本計畫的目的在於探討在漁獲統計資料充滿不確定性的情形下，抽樣資料的誤差會對資料評估結果所造成的影響。本計畫將根據漁獲統計資料之抽樣資料進行漁具別漁獲資料之分離，並進行雌雄性比與體長體重等相關生物性資料的蒐集以重新匯整漁獲物之體長與性別組成，而重新匯整所得之雌雄別漁獲尾數資料將可用以進行資源評估分析之用，而資源評估模式之各項參數估計將進一步利用貝氏方法（Bayesian method）以考慮參數估計的不確定性。各項抽樣誤差的影響將以蒙地卡羅模擬（Monte Carlo simulation）分析各項抽樣資料在發生各種不同程度的抽樣誤差之下會對資源評估結果與各項參考點估計造成何種程度的影響。而管理策略之風險分析將基於參數之貝氏後驗分佈（Bayesian posterior distribution）以模擬方法進行評估。 " " Sailfish are known to be sex dimorphic. Besides, Sailfish in the Taiwan waters were exploited by multi-fisheries. Due to the absence of long term effort data and gear-specific catch-at-age data, however, some stock assessment models incorporated the factors related to sex dimorphic and gear selectivity can not be applied to this stock. Therefore, the objective of this study is to investigate the impacts of sampling error on the assessment of sailfish stock in the eastern Taiwan waters. In this study, the gear- and sex-specific catch-at-age data will be reassembled though analyzing the fishery statistics data and collecting the biological data, including length, weight and sex ratio data. The stock assessment will be conducted based on these reassembled catch-at-age data. The parameters of the model will be estimated using Bayesian method for considering the uncertainty of parameter estimations. The evaluation of the impacts of sampling error on the assessment will be conducted using Monte Carlo simulation method. Furthermore, the risk of alternative management strategy will be analyzed from the Bayesian posterior distribution of the parameters. "

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Evaluating Impacts of Sampling Error on the Assessment of Sailfish Stock in the Eastern Taiwan Waters Using a Monte Carlo Simulation Method

基本資料

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