Probabilistic Risk Assessment Using Fuzzy Bayesian Network and Its Application to Pilotage Operations

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Project title

Code/計畫編號

NSTC115-2410-H019-023

Translated Name/計畫中文名

機率式模糊貝氏網路風險評估模型之發展及其在港口引航作業之應用

OpenAIRE

國立臺灣海洋大學商船學系

Funding Organization/主管機關

National Science and Technology Council

Website

https://www.grb.gov.tw/search/planDetail?id=19492138

Year

115

Start date/計畫起

01-08-2026

Expected Completion/計畫迄

01-07-2027

Bugetid/研究經費

732千元

ResearchField/研究領域

經濟學

A. Influence for academic research A systematic way of conditional probability assignment- Some of the pilotage safety studies obtain the HEPs and conditional probabilities for BN parent and child nodes from the experts by arbitrarily assigning probability magnitudes due to the scarcity of data. In such situations, the issue of data uncertainty could be raised. This study provides a systematic way of conditional probability assignment under such circumstances. Risk outcomes generated with a higher degree of rationality- Fuzzy modelling methods often encounter the problem regarding the loss or compromise of input information in the process of expert judgement synthesis. The proposed methodology is set to equip with the feature of contemplating every piece of input information and providing rational combinations in the consequent part for the child node. Accordingly, the model is capable of generating outcomes with a higher degree of rationality. B. Influence for nation A scientific basis for pilotage safety improvement- In Taiwan, 34.8% of the marine accidents involving merchant ships are concerned with pilotage operations. A total of 78 recommendations for safety improvement regarding pilotage operations have been initiated by TSSB to the parties involved including government agencies. Currently, the Maritime and Port Bureau (MOTC) is committed to the establishment of a safety management scheme for pilotage operations in which one of the objectives is to propose a generic risk assessment methodology. It is believed that the proposed study will be able to provide a scientific basis for pilotage safety improvement which will be beneficial to the shipping industry and government agencies in particular TTSB and MOTC. References for pilotage safety policy making- This proposed framework will be able to offer useful insights due to the in-depth risk analysis conducted. The research outcomes will be used as the important references for the maritime authorities to formulate pilotage safety policies and safety management strategies. C. Influence for practical applications References for safety practice review of pilotage operations- The influence diagrams and risk results generated from this study could be used as the references for marine pilot offices in Taiwan and shipping companies to review the safety practices of pilotage operations.

Keyword(s)

模糊貝氏網路
模糊法則
引航安全
風險評估
fuzzy Bayesian Network
fuzzy rule
pilotage safety
risk assessment

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Probabilistic Risk Assessment Using Fuzzy Bayesian Network and Its Application to Pilotage Operations

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