Modeling Trampers' Arrival and Queuing Pricing Models with the Poisson and Exponential Distributions

瀏覽統計 Email 通知 RSS Feed

簡歷

基本資料

Project title

Code/計畫編號

MOST104-2410-H019-024

Translated Name/計畫中文名

卜式分配與指數分配建構不定期船錨區到達模式以及船席等候定價模式之研究

Project Coordinator/計畫主持人

Chen-Hsiu Laih

Funding Organization/主管機關

National Science and Technology Council

Department/Unit

Department of Merchant Marine

Website

https://www.grb.gov.tw/search/planDetail?id=11585254

Year

2015

Start date/計畫起

01-08-2015

Expected Completion/計畫迄

31-07-2016

Bugetid/研究經費

575千元

ResearchField/研究領域

交通運輸
管理科學

"不定期船通常無固定之航線或船期，故在目的港外錨區排隊等候進入港內船席裝卸的情況頗為常見。本研究將採等候定價方式分散不定期船到達時刻，以消除或減少其在錨區之排隊等候時間。在等候定價相關研究中，等候時間長度為計算均衡成本與推導最佳收費的重要關鍵，但目前既有文獻中，未考慮錨區不定期船來船機率信賴區間影響實際來船數之計算，也未考慮來船間隔影響船席使用率之計算，因而導致計算不定期船在錨區等候時間長度之偏頗，故有必要大幅修正既有模式，以求出更精確的等候時間長度。本研究以卜式分配與指數分配分別計算不同類型不定期船抵達錨區機率與來船間隔，藉以建構不定期船在錨區之等候時間長度模式，並據此推導出零等候以及階梯式最佳收費模式。本研究計畫為兩年期，內容涵蓋四個重要模式之建構，模式一：建構不定期船在錨區的排隊等候時間長度模式。模式二：建構不定期船排隊等候之均衡成本以及零等候最佳收費模式。模式三：建構不定期船完整的階梯式最佳收費模式。模式四：建構不定期船在上述兩種最佳收費體制下之錨區到達率與到達分散模式。最後，數值分析則是以上海港、新加坡港、高雄港等亞洲最繁忙的重要商港為研究對象，探討並比較這些商港在本研究計畫所推導的船席等候定價模式中之模擬實務運作。""Trampers have no regular sailing schedule and route, so they have to queue at the general anchorage frequently for available berths to load/unload cargos. This research is going to execute a queuing pricing policy for a busy port to eliminate the tramper’s queuing time spent at the general anchorage. In the current literatures of queuing pricing for trampers, the length of queuing time at the general anchorage is the crucial key point to calculate the equilibrium cost and derive the optimal toll scheme. However, these literatures ignored the confidence interval of tramper’s arrival probability which affects solving the number of total arrivals, and also ignored the tramper’s arrival frequency which affects solving the berth usage rate. Therefore, the length of queuing time model in the current literatures is inaccurate because of ignoring the above two factors. In order to improve this model, this research introduces the Poisson and Exponential distributions into this model to compute the tramper’s arrival probability and frequency, respectively. According to the improved model, then we can derive the optimal non-queuing toll scheme and optimal step toll scheme. This two-year research develops four important models. The first model develops the length of queuing time for all queuing trampers at the general anchorage. The second model develops the equilibrium cost and optimal non-queuing toll scheme. The third model develops the optimal step toll scheme. The fourth model develops the arrival rate and dispersing arrival time for all trampers after implementing the above toll schemes. Finally, the numerical example raises Shanghai, Singapore and Kaohsiung Ports as the research objects to simulate the above four models of queuing pricing for trampers."

Keyword(s)

不定期船
錨區
均衡成本
零等候最佳收費
階梯式最佳收費
Tramper
General anchorage
Equilibrium cost
Optimal non-queuing toll scheme
Optimal step toll scheme

DSpace CRIS

Modeling Trampers' Arrival and Queuing Pricing Models with the Poisson and Exponential Distributions

基本資料

Description