Streamflow Forecasting and Water Resources Situation Analysis by Use of Fuzzy Set Theory (II)

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Project title

Code/計畫編號

NSC89-2211-E019-033

Translated Name/計畫中文名

模糊理論在河川流量預測及水資源情勢分析之研究(II)

Project Coordinator/計畫主持人

Wen-Cheng Huang

Funding Organization/主管機關

National Science and Technology Council

Department/Unit

Department of Harbor and River Engineering

Website

https://www.grb.gov.tw/search/planDetail?id=548319

Year

2000

Start date/計畫起

01-08-2000

Expected Completion/計畫迄

31-07-2001

Bugetid/研究經費

659千元

ResearchField/研究領域

土木水利工程

本計畫為二年期研究計畫，第一年度已利用模糊中心指標(Fuzzy c-means)疊代聚類分析方法(ISODATA 聚類分析法)，建立一預測未來9 旬流量之河川流量模糊預測模式。本年度乃利用模糊綜合評估方法，建立一水資源現況豐枯指標評估模式，其中以水庫供水系統之河川入流量、水庫水位及水庫操作規線做為評估指標，透過水文豐枯之模糊隸屬度函數擬定評估因子，最後透過模糊運算，建立一水資源現況豐枯指標評估模式。藉由中長期流量模糊預測及水資源現況豐枯指標評估模式建立，已可實際應用於水庫供水調配管理之水資源情勢分析的應用。 The main purposes of this research are twofold. The first study year will focus on the long-term streamflow forecasting to reservoirs based on the fuzzy set theory, while fuzzy multicriterion decision making will be stressed on the hydrologic situation analysis of any specific reservoir at the second study year. The steps of the fuzzy-based decision model to assess preference intensity of a given solution (reservoir situation) in period t are as follows: (1) to establish a criteria set (for example, reservoir inflow, reservoir level) and an assessment set for reservoir situation (for example, wet, normal, dry); (2) to set up an evaluation matrix; and (3) to formulate a composite vector by compounding weights of criteria with evaluation matrix. Consequently, the degree values among composite vector reveal the rank of reservoir situation

Keyword(s)

模糊集合理論
河川流量預測
水資源管理
聚類分析
Fuzzy set theory
Streamflow forecasting
Water resource management
Cluster analysis

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Streamflow Forecasting and Water Resources Situation Analysis by Use of Fuzzy Set Theory (II)

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