Study on Drought Early Warning Decision Model for Agricultural Fallow Events

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Project title

Code/計畫編號

96農科-12.1.1-利-b1(12)

Translated Name/計畫中文名

農業休耕預警決策模式之研究

Project Coordinator/計畫主持人

Wen-Cheng Huang

Funding Organization/主管機關

Council of Agriculture,Executive Yuan

Department/Unit

Department of Harbor and River Engineering

Website

https://www.grb.gov.tw/search/planDetail?id=1488326

Year

2007

Start date/計畫起

01-06-2007

Expected Completion/計畫迄

01-12-2007

Bugetid/研究經費

356千元

ResearchField/研究領域

農田水利

近年來乾旱頻度日益嚴重，尤其是當枯旱缺水程度不是很明顯可判斷時（如：九十五年之休耕事件），對決策者而言，當下要不要採取休耕限水策略將更不知所措。因此本研究將以桃園地區近年農業休耕事件為研究案例，綜合乾旱的監測、影響、預警、應變至決策的分析，透過時間尺度之特性及機率模式之應用，建立預警決策模式，檢定評估農業休耕關鍵時刻決策之準確性及適度性，以期提供決策者在面對未來不確定水文條件下有一個更明確的決策依據。 In recent years, drought events hit Taiwan frequently and bring immense impacts to agricultural damage. This study presents a decision model integrated into a drought early warning system (DEWS) for reservoir operation. It is to support policy making under uncertainty for drought management. Indeed, it is difficult for decision makers to make an appropriate decision under uncertainty, in particular when alternatives differ substantially from each other. That is, the WRA officials probably hesitate about signal choice when signals provided by the DEWS varied considerably. Therefore, drought early warning decision model is further needed to help decision makers to make better decisions.

Keyword(s)

桃園地區
預警決策
農業休耕
Taoyuan Area
Early Warning Decision
Agricultural Fallow

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Study on Drought Early Warning Decision Model for Agricultural Fallow Events

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