Diversification of Water Resources Management and Its Adjustment over the Areas of Hsinchu, Taoyuan, and Taipei.(Ii)

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Project title

Code/計畫編號

MOST108-2625-M019-002

Translated Name/計畫中文名

竹桃北地區穩定供水與減災總合策略研究與成效評估-總計畫暨子計畫:竹桃北地區水資源多元化聯合調配與調適策略(II)

Project Coordinator/計畫主持人

Wen-Cheng Huang

Funding Organization/主管機關

National Science and Technology Council

Department/Unit

Department of Harbor and River Engineering

Website

https://www.grb.gov.tw/search/planDetail?id=13124469

Year

2019

Start date/計畫起

01-08-2019

Expected Completion/計畫迄

01-07-2020

Bugetid/研究經費

1609千元

ResearchField/研究領域

防災工程

本子計畫以台灣北部地區(新竹、桃園與台北)為研究對象，主要探討竹桃北地區水資源多元化聯合調配與調適策略。本年度計畫(第二年)主要以桃園、台北地區為主要研究區域，重點著重在桃園、台北地區農業、民生與工業水資源供需評估，包含進行現況水資源使用狀況分析，並對該研究區域進行田間水平衡、降雨逕流與水資源供水系統模擬與模式建置。整體探討石門水庫與翡翠水庫水資源供需問題，以期有效且合理地使用有限水資源量，提高水資源利用率。桃園地區灌溉用水量模擬結果顯示：不論是一期或是二期皆有低估與高估的現象，但就整體平均而言與實際灌溉用水量相比，一期略高估了47 mm，二期則高估了157mm，其高估原因主要是在實際灌溉時有休耕的情況發生。在石門水庫與翡翠水庫上游集水區之流量推估方面，不論是檢定或驗證，其誤差多在15 %以內。僅有翡翠水庫上游集水區枯水期驗證流量的部分達19 %，模擬結果較不理想，但就整體之全年流量來看，此誤差結果尚在可接受之範圍。水筒模式可掌握住短時間與長時間之流量變化，但在流量的高峰時較無法有效掌握。最後進行桃園與台北地區水資源供水系統模擬，其結果顯示在不休耕的情況下，公共缺水指標SI為0.68，公共缺水量 38.09 MCM，石門與桃園農業年缺水量分別為29.41與1.79 MCM，公共年供水量1107.62 MCM，公共連續缺天數來到94天，而石門與桃園農業連續缺水天數分別為55與13天；在休耕的情況下，公共缺水指標SI為0.45，公共缺水量33.15 MCM，石門與桃園農業年缺水量分別為20.40與1.26 MCM，公共年供水量1103.83 MCM，公共連續缺天數來到80天，而石門與桃園農業連續缺水天數分別為41與12天，休耕次數則分別為5與3次，有此可以看出在經過休耕後可以改善桃園地區之缺水問題。另外，台北地區水資源供水系統模擬結果顯示，公共缺水指標SI為0.22，公共缺水量28.32 MCM，公共年供水量953.66 MCM，公共連續缺天數僅有17天；研究區域水資源供給近於平衡狀態，未來不論民生或工業用水都有增加的趨勢，因此在限度範圍內增加區域性之水資源彈性調度，值得未來繼續研究與探討。下年度計畫將整合第一年度與第二年度研究成果進行延伸，以新竹、桃園與台北地區為主要研究對象，以前期研究成果為基礎，加入Taiwan Climate Change Projection Information and Adaptation Knowledge Platform所提供之RCP4.5情境水文資料，與經驗模態分解法(Empirical Mode Decomposition)所推估之未來情境資料，對新竹地區、桃園地區與台北地區各標的用水進行氣候變遷對水資源供需之衝擊影響評估，做為三年度計畫總結。The purpose of this subproject is to analyze water resource utilization on the northern Taiwan, including Hsinchu, Taoyuan, and Taipei. In the second year, we focuse on the joint operation and conveyance of water resources in the Taoyuan and Taipei area; specifically, we construct the paddy field water balance model, rainfall-runoff model and water supply system for the study area. From an integrated perspective to discuss the relationship between water demand and supply, and make the water utilization more efficient and rational in Shimen and Feitsui watershed, which dominates the water use of Taoyuan and Taipei area. For the results of estimating irrigation water requirement: the model estimation of irrigation water requirement overestimates 47 mm in the first period, but underestimates 157 mm in the second period. Furthermore, for the result of evaluating river discharge, the calibration and verification error is less than 15% in most cases. Within the point of view of annual discharge, the level of error is under acceptable range. The tank model is capable to capture the short term and long term change of discharge; however, the it cannot effectively captures the peak discharge. Finally, the simulation of the water supply system in Taoyuan area shows that: for the case of non fallow, the public SI is 0.68, the public shortage is 38.09 MCM, and the agricultural shortage of Shimen and Taoyuan Irrigation is 29.41 and 1.79 MCM respectively. The water supply volume is 1107.62 MCM, the consecutive water shortage days in public is 90 days. The consecutive water shortage days in agriculture of Shimen and Taoyuan Irrigation is 55 and 13 days, respectively. For the case of fallow, the public SI is 0.45, the public shortage is 33.15 MCM, and the agricultural shortage of Shimen and Taoyuan Irrigation is 20.40 and 1.26 MCM respectively. The water supply volume is 1103.83 MCM, the consecutive water shortage days in public is 80 days. The consecutive water shortage days in agriculture of Shimen and Taoyuan and Shimen Irrigation is 41 and 12 days, respectively. The average of each model in Shimen and Taoyuan Irrigation will fallow 5 and 3 times respectively. And the simulation of the water supply system in Taipei area shows that: the public SI is 0.22, the public shortage is 28.32 MCM. The water supply volume is 953.66 MCM, the consecutive water shortage days in public is 17 days. The next step of integrate the research results of the first year and the second year and extend it. The main research objects are Hsinchu, Taoyuan and Taipei. In addition, base on the previous research results, it will be added the future climate data from Taiwan Climate Change Projection Information and Adaptation Knowledge Platform, and the synthetic climate data from Empirical Mode Decomposition, evaluate the impact of climate change on the supply and demand of water resources for the Hsinchu, Taoyuan, and Taipei areas. As a summary of the three-year subproject 1.

Keyword(s)

水庫操作規則
氣候變遷
經驗模態分解法
Reservoir operating rules
Climate change
Empirical mode decomposition

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Diversification of Water Resources Management and Its Adjustment over the Areas of Hsinchu, Taoyuan, and Taipei.(Ii)

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