CEO Overconfidence and the Future Benefits and Riskiness of R&D Investments: A Bondholders’ Perspective

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Project title

Code/計畫編號

MOST104-2410-H424-002

Translated Name/計畫中文名

經理人過度自信與R&D投資之未來利益與風險：債權人的觀點

Project Coordinator/計畫主持人

Shu-Miao Lai

Funding Organization/主管機關

National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction

Department/Unit

Department of Accounting, KNU

Website

https://www.grb.gov.tw/search/planDetail?id=11473636

Year

2015

Start date/計畫起

01-08-2015

Expected Completion/計畫迄

31-07-2016

Bugetid/研究經費

342千元

ResearchField/研究領域

財政（含金融，保險）

本研究從債券持有者觀點探討經理人過度自信與研究發展(R&D)投資之未來利益與風險間關係。本文推測債券持有者會把過度自信經理人之R&D 投資視為低報酬且高風險之投資決策，主要原因為過度自信經理人所進行的R&D 投資較可能使債券持有者遭受較低未來現金流量與較高的現金流量波動性。本研究係從債券持有者觀點，以研發-債券間之訂價關係來檢測本研究假說。首先，本研究預期過度自信經理人之研發投資與初級債券巿場之新發行公司債風險溢酬呈正向關係；再者，本文預期過度自信經理人所從事研發投資與次級債券巿場所發行公司債之超額報酬呈正向關係；最後，本研究預期過度自信經理人所從事研發投資與公司債違約可能性呈正向關係。整體而論，本研究提供債券持有者能洞察公司經理人特質(過度自信)對研發投資之利益與風險會產生影響。 From the perspective of bondholders, this study investigates the effect of Chief Executive Officer (CEO) overconfidence on the future benefit and riskiness of research and development (R&D) investments. I hypothesize that bondholders consider R&D investments resulting from overconfident CEOs to be a lower-benefit and high-risk investment. This is because bondholders in firms with overconfident CEOs are more likely to suffer from both lower future cash flows and more volatile future cash flows from R&D investments. To test my hypotheses, I conduct a R&D-bond pricing relation in both the primary and secondary bond markets from non-insider bondholders’ perspectives. I first expect that the relation between R&D investment resulting from overconfident CEOs and risk premiums on newly-issued bonds in the primary market is positive. Second, I expect that the relation between R&D investment resulting from CEO overconfidence and excess bond returns in the secondary market is positive. Finally, I expect that the relation between R&D investments resulting from overconfident CEOs and default probability is positive. Overall, this study provides that non-insider bondholders consider R&D investment resulting from overconfident CEOs to be a lower-benefit and high-risk investment.

Keyword(s)

過度自信
研發的利益
研發的風險
債券定價
Overconfidence
Benefits of R&D
Riskiness of R&D
Bond pricing

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CEO Overconfidence and the Future Benefits and Riskiness of R&D Investments: A Bondholders’ Perspective

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