Evaluation of the development of biobutanol with reference to continental level: The rebound effect and effectiveness of the Paris Agreement

Abstract

This work modifies the dynamic GTAP model by incorporating the production and sales structure of the biobutanol industry to forecast the path of the development of biobutanol by continent. The results reveal that developed countries should focus on biobutanol technological advances and developing countries should concentrate increasing the flexibility of the structure of biobutanol industry for the development of bioenergy. The production of biobutanol is highly sensitive to the elasticities of energy substitutes. The long-term rebound effects on biobutanol will range from 58.2% to 89.6%. Developed continents are more energy-efficient. Improving energy efficiency increases production of production. Investment in the early stage of a new bioenergy industry will increase the value of the production of bioenergy. The Paris Agreement without green investment may reduce industrial energy production except in South America and parts of North America. The IEA's Bridge Strategy is effective in keeping global warming to less than 2 degrees C, but will decrease economic growth globally. This study provides useful information for biobutanol investors and decision makers in the field of who are affected by climate change. (C) 2016 Hydrogen Energy Publications LLC. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.