http://scholars.ntou.edu.tw/handle/123456789/18077
標題: | Designing intelligent disaster prediction models and systems for debris-flow disasters in Taiwan | 作者: | Hsu-Yang Kung Chi-Hua Chen Hao-Hsiang Ku |
關鍵字: | Debris-flow prediction models;Disaster prevention;Back-propagation network;Decision support system;Mobile multimedia communications | 公開日期: | 四月-2012 | 卷: | 39 | 期: | 5 | 起(迄)頁: | 5838-5856 | 摘要: | Effective disaster prediction relies on using correct disaster decision model to predict the disaster occurrence accurately. This study proposes three effective debris-flow prediction models and an inference engine to predict and decide the debris-flow occurrence in Taiwan. The proposed prediction models are based on linear regression, multivariate analysis, and back-propagation networks. To create a practical simulation environment, the decision database is the pre-analyzed 181 potential debris-flows in Taiwan. According to the simulation results, the prediction model based on back-propagation networks predicted the debris flow most accurately. Moreover, a Real-time Mobile Debris Flow Disaster Forecast System (RM(DF)2) was implemented as a three-tier architecture consisting of mobile appliances, intelligent situation-aware agents and decision support servers based on the wireless/mobile Internet communications. The RM(DF)2 system provides real-time communication between the disaster area and the rescue-control center, and effectively prevents and manages debris-flow disasters. |
URI: | http://scholars.ntou.edu.tw/handle/123456789/18077 | DOI: | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2011.11.083 |
顯示於: | 食品安全與風險管理研究所 |
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