Comparison of river basin water level forecasting methods: sequential neural networks and multiple-input functional neural networks

Abstract

To precisely forecast downstream water levels in catchment areas during typhoons, the deep learning artificial neural networks were employed to establish two water level forecasting models using sequential neural networks (SNNs) and multiple-input functional neural networks (MIFNNs). SNNs, which have a typical neural network structure, are network models constructed using sequential methods. To develop a network model capable of flexibly consolidating data, MIFNNs are employed for processing data from multiple sources or with multiple dimensions. Specifically, when images (e.g., radar reflectivity images) are used as input attributes, feature extraction is required to provide effective feature maps for model training. Therefore, convolutional layers and pooling layers were adopted to extract features. Long short-term memory (LSTM) layers adopted during model training enabled memory cell units to automatically determine the memory length, providing more useful information. The Hsintien River basin in northern Taiwan was selected as the research area and collected relevant data from 2011 to 2019. The input attributes comprised one-dimensional data (e.g., water levels at river stations, rain rates at rain gauges, and reservoir release) and two-dimensional data (i.e., radar reflectivity mosaics). Typhoons Saola, Soudelor, Dujuan, and Megi were selected, and the water levels 1 to 6 h after the typhoons struck were forecasted. The results indicated that compared with linear regressions (REG), SNN using dense layers (SNN-Dense), and SNN using LSTM layers (SNN-LSTM) models, superior forecasting results were achieved for the MIFNN model. Thus, the MIFNN model, as the optimal model for water level forecasting, was identified.