Impact Of Climate Change On Shihmen Reservoir Water Supply

Abstract

This study evaluated the impact of climate change on the water supply of the Shihmen reservoir in northern Taiwan. Five downscaled general circulation models that represent the daily meteorological data of 2046-2065 were adopted. The future inflow of the Shihmen reservoir was estimated using the tank model. Subsequently, the water supply risk under the given demand and operating conditions was simulated and assessed. Compared with 2004-2011, the average annual precipitation of the Shihmen watershed in 2046-2065 is lower, particularly during the wet season (May-October). Therefore, the risk to the water supply will increase in the first cropping season (from March to June) in the future. To reduce the risk of water shortage caused by public demand, irrigation fallowing during the cropping season is necessary.