何時出發較好：以劇變模型分析出發時間的決策行為

Abstract

高速公路壅塞是交通管理單位關心的課題，藉由大數據分析並整合天氣、網路輿論等資料庫建構交通流量預警機制是近年來的趨勢，而用路人的決策行為則是大數據分析在交通管理應用的重要議題。由於部分用路人的出發時間是具彈性且可視情況調整，故若能讓第三方移動應用軟體整合高速公路交通資訊並提供介面讓關鍵少數的用路人根據交通狀況調整出發時間，將有助於改善高速公路壅塞現象。本文以國道5號為例，先以結構方程模型分析影響用路人根據交通資訊改變出發時間的決策因素，其次以蝴蝶劇變模型分析不同變數組合下的用路人行為，最後經由尖點劇變模型與不同情境探討用路人調整出發時間的決策行為。本文的成果將有助於交通主管機關研擬交通控制策略。 The congestion of national highways is an important topic for traffic management. Using big data analysis to identify patterns and integrate weather information, Internet public opinion, and other information to construct a traffic flow predictive model is the most important application trend. The choice and decision-making behavior of passersby is one of the important issues in the application of big data analysis in traffic management. Since the departure time of some transportation trips is flexible, if the third-party mobile application software (Application, APP) can integrate the traffic information of the national highway and provide a management interface let the vital few of the driver can adjust the departure time according to the traffic conditions. It will help to improve the phenomenon that national highway traffic must be congestion every holiday. This article uses National Highway No. 5 as a research case; the structural equation model is used to analyze the decision factors that influence road users to change the departure time according to traffic information. Secondly, we analyze the behavior under different combinations of variables by the butterfly catastrophe model. Finally, explore road users are in different simulation scenarios for decision-making behavior to adjust the departure time through the cusp catastrophe model. The findings of this research could strengthen the contribution of professionals to traffic management goals.