Forecasts of the Compound Coastal Erosion Risks Based on Time-Variant Assessment: A Case Study on Yunlin Coast, Taiwan

Abstract

A coastal erosion risk assessment was framed as the basis for the intervention of coastal adaptation strategies under time-variant scenarios. The framework was devised to assess the influence of coastal erosion on coastal defense, the coastal inundation induced by the erosion-induced malfunction of defense, and risks using a downscaling analysis and the mechanism of the compound hazard interaction, which are innovative and practical for the application of coastal management in Taiwan. In addition, the vulnerable socio-economy was also taken into consideration in risk assessment. The adaptive strategy is proposed in terms of the risk origins and time-variance of risk forecasts, and the risk origins were assessed based on the Fuzzy Delphi Method and the analytic hierarchy process instead of subjective consideration. Within the erosion-induced hazard and risk assessments, this study considered erosion rates, decreases in defense elevation due to land subsidence, and population development in time-variant scenario analyses to estimate risk forecasts. Furthermore, a case study of the Yunlin coastal area was undertaken to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed method. The presented results are informative for coastal hazard reduction and the promotion of the sustainable development of coastal zones.