A Hybrid Approach of Air Mass Trajectory Modeling and Machine Learning for Acid Rain Estimation

Abstract

This study employed machine learning, specifically deep neural networks (DNNs) and long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, to build a model for estimating acid rain pH levels. The Yangming monitoring station in the Taipei metropolitan area was selected as the research site. Based on pollutant sources from the air mass back trajectory (AMBT) of the HY-SPLIT model, three possible source regions were identified: mainland China and the Japanese islands under the northeast monsoon system (Region C), the Philippines and Indochina Peninsula under the southwest monsoon system (Region R), and the Pacific Ocean under the western Pacific high-pressure system (Region S). Data for these regions were used to build the ANN_AMBT model. The AMBT model provided air mass origin information at different altitudes, leading to models for 50 m, 500 m, and 1000 m (ANN_AMBT_50m, ANN_AMBT_500m, and ANN_AMBT_1000m, respectively). Additionally, an ANN model based only on ground station attributes, without AMBT information (LSTM_No_AMBT), served as a benchmark. Due to the northeast monsoon, Taiwan is prone to severe acid rain events in winter, often carrying external pollutants. Results from these events showed that the LSTM_AMBT_500m model achieved the highest percentages of model improvement rate (MIR), ranging from 17.96% to 36.53% (average 27.92%), followed by the LSTM_AMBT_50m model (MIR 12.94% to 26.42%, average 21.70%), while the LSTM_AMBT_1000m model had the lowest MIR (2.64% to 12.26%, average 6.79%). These findings indicate that the LSTM_AMBT_50m and LSTM_AMBT_500m models better capture pH variation trends, reduce prediction errors, and improve accuracy in forecasting pH levels during severe acid rain events.