Nonunidirectional Habitat Changes Associated With Global Climate Change: The Example of the Indo-Pacific King Mackerel (Scomberomorus guttatus) in the Taiwan Strait

Abstract

Climate change poses a significant threat to marine ecosystems, potentially altering the distribution of marine organisms and causing many species to migrate towards the poles. The habitat changes of species targeted for fishing are likely to affect fishing activities and the livelihoods of coastal communities. Hence, the present study analyzed the distribution of Indo-Pacific king mackerel (IKM) in the Taiwan Strait (TS) by using ensemble modeling and considering two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (2.6 and 8.5) to assess the implications of predicted climate change. Four species distribution models incorporating sea surface height, chlorophyll, salinity, and temperature were used as inputs to create an ensemble model that replicated IKM distribution under current ocean conditions. The ensemble habitat model does not show monotonic decrease of IKM habitat but reveals more complex change in the 21st century with a hump around 2050. By end of the century, IKM is predicted to decline under RCP 8.5 scenario more seriously than under RCP 2.6. The study highlights the need for adaptation measures in managing IKM fisheries in the TS, emphasizing the importance of considering non-unidirectional habitat changes in the global oceans as well.