Risk assessment of ships maneuvering in an approaching channel based on AIS data

Abstract

Two approaches, namely, the crossing-line and the Monte Carlo methods, for navigation safety assessment in approaching channel based on Automatic Identification System (AIS) are proposed. The crossing-line method evaluated the ship grounding probability using the probability density functions of the ship track parameters from single-crossing-line or multi-crossing-lines. The Monte Carlo method considers the causation of the track parameters. Such a causation was realized using a regression algorithm by which the relationships among the ship track parameters can be established through a crossing-line with the factors corresponding to the previous crossing-lines. With the relationships, Monte Carlo simulation of ship trajectory evaluation was then applied to assess the grounding frequency. The inbound ship behaviors of Kaohsiung Harbor are analyzed to quantitatively assess the grounding risk on entrance and inner traffic lane. The results of the grounding probability acquired from both methods are consistent with each other. The grounding probability of the starboard boundary is higher than the port one. The proposed methods could be further applied to risk assessment and will facilitate navigational safety in congested waterways and ports.