Evaluation of the Impacts of Climate Change on Albacore Distribution in the South Pacific Ocean by Using Ensemble Forecast

Abstract

South Pacific albacore (Thunnus alalunga) is a highly migratory tuna species widely distributed throughout 0 degrees-50 degrees S in the South Pacific Ocean. Climate-driven changes in the oceanographic condition largely influence the albacore distribution, relative abundance, and the consequent availability by the longline fisheries. In this study, we examined the habitat preference and spatial distribution of south Pacific albacore using a generalized additive model fitted to the longline fisheries data from the Western and Central Pacific Fisheries Commission (WCPFC) and Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission (IATTC). Future projections of albacore distributions (2020, 2050, and 2080) were predicted by using an ensemble modeling approach produced from various atmosphere-ocean general circulation models and anthropogenic emission scenarios (i.e., RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) to reduce the uncertainty in the projected changes. The dissolved oxygen concentration at 100 meters (DO100) and sea surface temperature (SST) were found to have the most substantial effects on the potential albacore distribution that the albacore preferred in the habitat with DO100 of 0.2-0.25 mmol L-1 and SST of 13-22 degrees C. This study suggested that the northern boundary of albacore preferred habitat is expected to shift southward by about 5 degrees latitudes, and the relative abundance is expected to gradually increase in the area south of 30 degrees S from 2020 to 2080 for both RCP scenarios, especially with a higher degree of change for the RCP 8.5. Moreover, the albacore relative abundance is projected to decrease in the most exclusive economic zones (EEZs) of countries and territories in the South Pacific Ocean by 2080. These findings could lend important implications on the availability of tuna resources to the fisheries and subsequent evaluation of tuna conservation and management under climate change.