Carbonate chemistry and projected future changes in pH and CaCO3 saturation state of the South China Sea

Abstract

To study the dissolved carbonate system in the South China Sea (SCS) and to understand the water mass exchange between the SCS and the West Philippine Sea (WPS), pH, total alkalinity and total CO2 were measured aboard the R/V Ocean Researcher 1. Because of the sill that separates these two seas in the Luzon Strait with a maximum depth of 2200 m, the SCS Deep Water has characteristics similar to those of water at about 2200 m in the WPS. The minimum pH and the maxima of normalized alkalinity and total CO2 commonly found in the open oceans at mid-depth also prevail in the WPS but are, however, very weak in the SCS. Rivers and inflows from Kuroshio Surface and Deep Waters through the Luzon Strait as well as those through the Mindoro Strait transport carbon to the SCS year-round. Meanwhile, the outflowing Taiwan Strait water as well as the SCS Surface and Intermediate Waters of the Luzon Strait transports carbon out of the SCS year-round. The Sunda Shelf is also a channel for carbon transport into the SCS in the wet season and out of the SCS in the dry season.

fCO2 data and mass balance calculations indicate that the SCS is a weak CO2 source in the wet season but an even weaker CO2 sink in the dry season. With these facts taken together, the SCS is likely a very weak CO2 source. Anthropogenic CO2 penetrates to about 1500 m in depth in the SCS, and the entire SCS contains 0.60 ± 0.15 × 1015 g of excess carbon. Typical profiles of pH as well as the degree of saturation of each of calcite and aragonite in 1850 and 1997 are presented, and those for 2050 AD are projected. The maximum decrease in pH is estimated to be 0.16 pH units in the surface layer when the amount of CO2 is doubled. It is anticipated that aragonite in the upper continental slope will likely start to dissolve, thereby neutralizing excess CO2 by around 2050 AD. This paper is unique in that it presents the results of the first attempt ever to estimate the past, present and future physico-chemical properties of the world's largest marginal sea.